With only three weeks to go, no team is safe to make the playoffs (except one). Even the teams intertwined in the 4-way tie for last place all have a legitimate chance at the playoffs. It's going to be an exciting couple of remaining weeks to see who fills out where. On to the season's cumulative numbers:
Strangely, (sadly?) Joe is still both in first place and the most unlucky. He had the 3rd best score from this past week and happened to be playing the team with the best score. It's quite a spectacle to watch this. Is it possible that he could get so unlucky that he would miss the playoffs? That would show just how lucky Fantasy Football is. We know baseball's grueling season has enough outcomes to put teams closer to where they should be. I've argued that I enjoy those longer seasoned sports because luck is less involved (though it's still there). But it would be a monumental occurrence if Joe's team does not place in the top 6, even though he'd most likely be in 1st place if we had a different schedule. Joe is there some bad karma you're now on the receiving end of? He should have almost 3 wins more at this point ...
Joe has the fewest wins in the league for pete's sake! AND he is on a 5 game losing streak! He should have won 48.8% of his games over that time, instead it's 0. That's a swing of 2.4 wins alone. You're lucky I'm here to show the world how unlucky you've been, otherwise we'd be laughing at you for having the least wins in the league.
My boys in 2nd place are still creeping up on Joe (or is it that Joe's numbers are descending toward mine?) and I'm trying to justify my 1st place in the league by having the best ProjW%. I am still the most lucky team, though I've been improving that number by putting up back-to-back-to-back best scores of the week.
Boston TD Party and Super Consistency are forces to be reckoned with in these upcoming weeks and come playoff time. They've got good numbers either way you look at it.
Deep Throw It has quietly sneaked into 2nd place, despite his projected rank of 5th in the league. His luck came from those first few weeks, but other than that, his W-L-T is consistent with where he should be.
As for the projected seeds, losses by Super Consistency, The Renaissance, and TEAM CHRIS BROWN sure hurt their chances. Here's what I've got:
1) Primus Inter Pares - 9.4 Projected Pts
2) Deep Throw It - 7.5
3) Boston TD Party - 7.3
4) Duke Football - 7.0
5) Super Consistency - 6.6
and this last spot is quite the toss-up
6a) The Renaissance - 5.98
6b) The Moops - 5.95
Should be fun to watch.
Let's look at the matchups for this upcoming week based on how each team would have fared had they only played their Week 11 opponent the whole year:
Primus Inter Pares has gone 6-4-0 vs TEAM CHRIS BROWN in these last 10 weeks. Not as safe a bet as I would have hoped.
Boston TD Party has gone 5-4-1 against The Moops this year.
Super Consistency has also gone 6-4-0 against Duke Football
This might be the safe bet of the week. The Renaissance has gone 8-2-0 against the Bulldogs this year. It's funny because as I have said a) They are both tied for last place and b) The Bulldogs have more wins than The Renaissance
Deep Throw it has gone 7-3-0 against TEAM RIHANNA. Seeing as how TMac doesn't care to check his team much anymore, I'd expect this to be more than a 70% chance of a win for Dave.
Well there you have it. I've crunched the numbers of the past, and used those numbers to help guide us toward being more informative about what can happen in the future.
MEDIA
Here's a trippy video about Dock Ellis's no-hitter in 1970, whilst under the influence of LSD. Here's a prologue for ya'll to get up to speed.
And then we've got this nutjob from Georgia. I don't know if he was under the influence of something, or he just never wanted to leave character. You decide:
Take care kids. Turkey day's coming up soon. It's going to be a much needed break for us all. And what our thoughts on the Twins' new unis?
Sorry for the delay people. I had a presentation Tuesday and a Math test Wednesday to deal with. So now I'm back.
Clearly, there's been a lot going on around the league. I will not cover any external issues in this post, but hopefully at some point I'll get around to it. It will probably be something along the format of Mike's post since The State of the League was a large document and I may have hangups about specific parts of it.
But let's also welcome Dave back to our league after his haitus. It's good to know there's still a captain driving the ship that is our league. (Even if the crew seems uneasy about it).
Alas, I'm getting ahead of myself. On to the numbers!
It's evident that the Greek gods are on the decline. Their ProjW% has fallen almost week by week except for a few exceptions, but their league ranking is even worse. Based on their past numbers, they should be in 1st place. However, they sit on top of a 4-way tie for 6th place. Yes, they've been the most unlucky team this year. They should have won almost 2 more games in these past 9 weeks. I guess that's why we play the game.
Boston TD Party has quietly turned into an elite fantasy football squad. Their 2nd place ProjW% ranking and 4th place league ranking almost assure these guys a playoff spot. They also happen to be the 2nd most unlucky team behind Greek gods.
Primus Inter Pares has been blessed. My team has surfaced themselves from the clump in the middle. Yes, we're the most lucky/overrated team. But I've put up some big points these last couple weeks to help justify my high ranking in the league.
As for the clump in the middle, our playoff format says 6 teams make the playoffs, and my numbers tell me that if your team wants a bye in the playoffs, you're going to have to secure yourself 7 points (1 pt Win, .5 pt Tie) or a .538 W%. If you want a playoff spot. You're going to have to reach the all important benchmark of 6 points (.462 W%), but perhaps more depending on how clumped we all are. Here's how my projected seeds look:
1) Primus Inter Pares 8.8 Projected final pts
2) Super Consistency 7.2
3) Deep Throw It 6.9
4) Boston TD Party 6.9
5) Greek gods 6.6
6) Duke Football 6.5
On the bubble: TEAM CHRIS BROWN 6.0
This list may change rapidly from week to week since each win is such a huge swing and we've only played 9 weeks.
Let's also take a look at how teams have fared these last 3 weeks:
Some things that stick out:
1) Greek gods should have won about 1.6, instead they won 0 when every other team had at least one win ... epically unlucky
2) Bulldogs won a game when they should have won practically 0. They had the lowest score in Weeks 7 and 8, and in Week 9 they had the second lowest behind TEAM RIHANNA. And who did they play that week? TEAM RIHANNA. They had an 88% chance of going 0-3 and they defied those odds ... lucky.
3) The Bulldogs had more wins this past week than Greek gods ... [shiver]
MEDIA
Just a precursor to the video: This song has been in my head for 4 straight days and the only reason I'm upset about that fact is because I'm scared I'll start to get sick of it and despise it. But alas, I love it. The video actually premiered Tuesday and it already has already almost 3,000,000 views. Enjoy.
Well that should do it for this week. I don't know when I'll get a response out to the public. In the meantime, I urge everyone of you to voice your opinion on these matters at hand. All of these issues concern each and everyone one of you. So make yourself heard.
Funny how I post something that so many people demanded, and there has yet to be any kind of response to it...and I'm the one who isn't involved enough in the league. Sticking to my word, here is the Week 9 Recap, Twitter-style edition. Each matchup in 140 characters or less...
Primus Inter Pares 71, Deep Throw It 45
Jack 1, Dave 0....anytime you have a guy on your bench who scores 21 points, it's a good bet you will lose that week.
Boston TD Party 71, Duke Football 47
No AP=No victory. Solid performance from everyone on JP's team minus McGahee
Super Consistency 71, Team Chris Brown 65
71 was the magic number this week...TCB is Mr. Ries's unlucky team of the week despite Kurt Warner's 25 points.
The Moops 61, Greek gods 57
How the mighty have fallen...this might be Joe's lowest standing in Armchair Fantasy sports history
Bulldogs 40, Team Rihanna 38
Might as well call this one battle of the futile ones. It's feast or famine for Tmac...gotta have WR's score in order to win.
Not going to bother with rankings this week, instead I'll leave that to our resident statistician. On to the links!!
Da Commish's Hot Clicks of the Week
If you haven't seen this kid yet, you must have been living in a hole for like a month (or you might just be in Europe).
I plan on making my kids memorize famous speeches and post them on YouTube to gain instant celebrity.
The all-important Evil Eye
Sammy Sosa's Halloween costume was Michael Jackson.
Just scary.
Here's the real reason they want health care reform...
Who said girls sports aren't high contact?
Well I think that's enough for now, so until next time here's Da Commish approved song of the week (Two of them to make up for lost time)
Yes it's Miley Cyrus, with a Lil Weezy thrown in
I know Jack will like this one....Your New Man by Mason Jennings
It has come to my attention that is a limited uprising in our league at the moment. It amazes me how everyone thinks they can do a better job than the guy who is already in the position of power. I had every intention of writing this before, but I sprained my ankle this week and so my attention has been elsewhere as my ankle started to look like that guys face at the end of Green Street Hooligans. This post will be to address the haters, questions, and concern of the members in our league.
Also, Jack gave me "a week or two", so I'm still within his timeline, and have not been ignoring him, just formulating my thoughts.
First off, I want to apologize for not posting Week Recaps for the majority of this season. Things have been busier than expected, but I will do my best to update you all every week from now on.
In reply to Mike's quest for current rebellion, here are the arguments you lay forth (some worthy, others not so much), and here are my rebuttals:
1. Stopped doing weekly reviews.
I fully acknowledge I have not done the week in reviews in many weeks. I do want to say however, that since when has this become a duty of the commissioner? This has always been Jack's thing that he does, and this summer I decided to try my hand at it since I was bored. Furthermore, everyone has the ability to write week in reviews, not just me and Jack. If you did them yourselves you would know how much time and effort it actually takes to write quality posts for this blog.
2. Not answering the questions in the reviews.
Here is my answer finally. And half the time, they're not questions. They're just constant insults directed towards me.
3. Mishandling of money.
Yes, the distribution of winnings has been a little rocky, but I have covered that with those who have won money in this league. Second, I had every intention of charging 20 dollars for the league this year, but that was when we were going to have an actual live draft. I see four of the member of the league frequently, and the others at random times. It would be virtually impossible to collect league fees when we don't all meet at one time, especially when people were leaving so early, and in some cases going abroad. I recognize I still owe money to some members, and I will make sure to get that money to them.
4. "Un-Goodell like" ruling
Mike, before you accused me of being too lenient and undecisive. Then I start making more strict rulings and everyone is up in arms about it. What do you want? You can't have it both ways.
5. The Request of a New Commissioner
Here's the deal: although I will step down if that's what the league decides, I do want to make the point that two of your nominations have already had the position of commissioner. Joe was the commissioner for baseball two years ago, and although there were no speedbumps, it had to be one of the most boring season of all our fantasy leagues. There was no interaction with the commissioner, no week recaps, no debates over what stats should and shouldn't be included, etc. Joe constantly changes the stats to whichever ones he wants, as is evidenced by his request every year to change the scoring for fantasy football (EVERY YEAR). Luke had attempted to organize a fantasy basketball league if I am not mistaken, and that had not gone so well. Jack is the only candidate who has yet to have the post, but if i had to guess I don't think he would enjoy it as much, because he would not have a higher power to constantly gripe about and argue with.
Now onto Mr. Ries's litany of inquiries:
1. Which stats to incorporate in non-Football (meaning baseball) leagues:
I have tried to comply with everyone's desires when it comes to stats in fantasy baseball. Admittedly, there have been some categories that should not be included (fielding percentage in particular), and I am of the opinion that less stats are better. If we include every statistic that everyone (by everyone I mean Joe) wants, than it tends to get ridiculous when it comes to trying to score matchups and such. Though I do appreciate that holds have put more emphasis on middle relievers, the holds stat is so fluky, it is virtually impossible to predict. Check the holds leaders for each year, they're never even close to the same guys. I have listened to and respected requests for the additions and subtractions of different categories, but most these requests come after we have already drafted or I have not had any input from others. I cannot add and subtract stats after the draft because that may completely change how some people draft.
2. How much each football stat is worth (leaving the big one until the end)
I have met Joe's EVERY request when it comes to changing how many points each stat gets. I am a man of the people in that regard (except for fractional points, which I will get to later). Joe has been the only one who has ever come to me to change the points system (minus Jack and fractional points), and I have changed them as requested.
3. How to order the draft and keeper leagues
I combined these two topics because they are similar in nature. Everyone agreed this year to a keeper league, and in my opinion I think it went very well and increased interest for the entire year, and allows us to make draft day trades (in which I was a part of). Also, in the case of keeper leagues, I think the system of having the draft order be the reverse of the final standings worked very well, as there has never been more parity in our league before. In the future, I would like to expand to three or possibly four keepers, as it brings more strategy into play when making trades both in and out of season.
4. Stance on which managers to allow in/out of leagues.
This issue actually came into play this year when Joe took it upon himself to give the league ID and password to Grimmer without my approval. Although it ended up working out OK because Danny was one of the more active members of the league, I do not think this can continue. I believe we have a strong core of guys to continue in this league, and any additions that might be made should be with a guy everyone is familiar with. The league is not as fun when there is someone we don't all know (for instance, the year we brought in the St. John's baseball player, Skluzchek or however you spell his name). I do think those that are in the league have an obligation to continue to check their lineups, unless you are Tony McDonald, because we all know we need one guy we can rip for being so inattentive that Chin-Ming Wang is still in his starting lineup.
5. Health Care (I mean fractional points)
Who knew this would be such a controversial topic. Before I address my objections for fractional points, I do want to state the fact that I did allow a vote on this premise for this season, not enough votes were cast, and thus it was not allowed. I refuse to change things when we don't get at least 8 votes cast out of the 10 members of the league. I don't think that's too much to ask. Now, my objections to fractional points are as follows:
a) It ruins part of the fun-Part of the fun of fantasy football is sitting there watching a game and yelling and screaming for your running back to get five more yards so you get that one extra point. Fractional points completely ruin this aspect of fantasy football (which I believe is why fantasy football is so addicting).
b) It ruins the ease of scoring- I enjoy being able to hear a guy's stats and being able to calculate his fantasy score on the spot. If someone has 92 yards rushing, I like being able to know he scored 4 points, not 4.6 points and trying to integrate that into my team's points for the week.
c) There are not fractional points in any other league-you don't get half a run if a guy reaches second base, or gets two thirds of a strikeout anytime a pitcher gets two strikes on a batter.
d) Ties are a part of football- The NFL has ties, and since fantasy football is supposed to (somewhat) imitate real-life football, why can't there be ties in our league? If there were someway to pick two players from your bench as tiebreakers, I would be all for that method, but Yahoo! doesn't allow for that. Fact is, ties happen, and it's part of sports.
e) We have already voted on it as a league- As I have already stated earlier in this column, we voted on it as a league, and not enough votes were cast. It's funny I get tarred and feathered for a taking a couple of weeks off of participating in this league, yet we couldn't even get 80% of our members to vote on something that some think is so crucial it needs to dethrone the leadership of the league. What is this, the French Revolution?
Well I think that is enough to chew on right now. I won't leave any media in this post, but I will make sure to do a Week Recap and post my thoughts and links for the week.
Until then, Viva la Armchair!!
I'm busy and I'm lazy. And I have nothing to argue with Dave about. So here are the stats:
Greek gods still hold the top spot despite being on a 3 game losing streak in the league standings. Again, these ratings are all in hindsight. So is Joe's team going to be the best for the rest of the season? Who knows? But all we know is that he should be in 1st place based on his past numbers.
Who's the most unlucky? Well that award goes to the Greek gods as well. Some crummy luck early on has hindered them, so I would expect his place in the league standings to rise. For instance, this past week he had the 3rd best score in the league but played the team who put up the 2nd best score. He would have beat 77% of all other teams but instead got 0 points in the standings. Behind Greek gods, The Moops are about a full win behind where they should be. They sit last in the league. No, they haven't put up great numbers but luck still hasn't help then with their schedule.
Who's the most lucky? That award still has my name on it. (Hey, at least I'm willing to admit it.) I'm in 1st in the league, riding a 3 game win streak, but have gotten lucky. Luckily, I put up the highest score this past week to help propel me higher in my Projected W%, but I'm still a little more than a win ahead of where I should be. Deep Throw It have improved their Projected W%, but are still riding the wave of their early season luck. They're about a win ahead of where they should be.
There's still quite a bit of parity in our league. I don't think we've really been able to separate the "bad" teams from the "good" teams yet.
MEDIA!
Who doesn't love themselves some Christopher Walken?:
And all I can say is FAIL to this guy:
So Joe still is in first place in our projected standings by a good margin, .6 of a win ahead of Boston TD Party. However, he's in 2nd place in the league. This could be caused by two things: a) Joe's gotten unlucky or b) The guy in first has been lucky. Well sadly for me, both of those things have been true. Joe is almost a win (.7) behind where he should be, based on the numbers he has put up in the past 7 weeks. On the flip side, Primus Inter Pares, my squad, has been quite quite lucky. I'm over one win ahead of where I should be. I've been lucky to have been matched up against teams that have put up poor numbers when I myself haven't put up spectacular numbers. As we can see though, my team, TEAM RIHANNA, and Deep Throw It, are still over a half a win of where they should be. Dave's team is starting to balance out and slowly creep toward the place in the standings where they should be. In addition, the Moops are the most unlucky team to date, and they sit in last place.
With the most lucky team in first, and the most unlucky team in last, it's as if we all are in fact equally talented teams and have to let luck determine where we go in the standings. It's quite a bit different than baseball when we KNEW that certain teams were better than others. Here, more is left to chance and things could turn sour at the end of the year for a few teams that miss the playoffs due to luck.
With that said, Dave, why do you so obtusely reject fractional points? I have a great idea for you. We can give you a week or two to do this. If you could, please come forward to your fellow managers and write us a "State of the League" address. Nothing fancy. But as our commissioner, I'd like to know the situation of the past, present, and future of this league. Just an idea that would a) be entertaining and b) put some minds at ease.
Anyway, I hope that these weird stats I'm putting up can shed some light on our league. If I hadn't come out with these numbers, people might actually believe I've been the best team since I have the best record.
Anyway, I'll continue with some media this week. Dave hasn't been contributing much here lately so you all must be hungry.
That is all. Until next week.
Well we had ourselves a week that made us all regress to the mean. Seemingly bad teams were beaten by seemingly good teams. I don't know up from down anymore. Let's take a look.
To begin, TEAM RIHANNA had some metaphorical revenge on TEAM CHRIS BROWN. RIHANNA was ranked 9th out of 10 last week in terms of ProjW% with TEAM CHRIS BROWN in 4th. It was quite the opposite of any of us (even Tony) could have predicted.
Boston TD Party (3rd) lost to the only team without a win. Although don't blame it on them, Bulldogs (10th) would have beaten everyone except TEAM RIHANNA if the schedule were different.
Duke Football (7th) found a vaccination for The Moops (6th). (There's a little Dave humour there for ya)
Super Consistency (5th) and Primus Inter Pares (2nd) had their own problems this week, coming in 9th and 10th in terms of points production.
And the Greek gods (1st) took out Deep Throw It (8th) to continue his clear domination. (Not to brag, but the only reason Joe's W isn't 1.000 is his Week 1 tie to yours truly. But then again, he would have a loss if we used fractional points.)
Let's take a look after Week 4:
Things have started to balance out a little bit. Boston TD Party is now the most underrated team instead of Primus Inter Pares. After my very very lucky win this week, my luck has just about balanced out.
Deep Throw It is still the most overrated team, even despite his loss to Joe. Granted though, he significantly reduced the difference between what his W% and what his W% should be. But we still get to bag on them for another week.
And I'll let Dave recap on our amazing Minnesota sports weekend. If only those gophs won ....
Until next week .