Week 3 in the books. Week 2 showed us that our team was pretty equally matched with only 2 teams without a win. Now this week, teams are starting to break out and play like they should, while some still have had some scheduling luck ...
On to the rankings:
As we can see. Joe has avoided a loss in these first three weeks (Although I'm still bitter about Week 1). On the other end, the Bulldogs can't find a win. Only TEAM RIHANNA scored more points than them this past week. But alas, the odds are they'll get a win sooner or later.
So let's look at what stands out. Well for starters, Primer Inter Pares has scored a whopping 192 points (2nd in the league by 2 points, with TEAM CHRIS BROWN in 3rd with 166) yet sits tied for 5th in the league. All things being equal, hopefully they'll see an increase in the league standings.
Also, you know I can't go a week without talking about the luck of Deep Throw It. They somehow sit tied for 2nd in the league in W% (4th if we count Pts). So let's ask what are the odds that he has put up these numbers and has escaped 2-1-0? Let's do the math.
Odds that Deep Throw It goes 2-1-0 after 3 weeks:
Possible scenarios: 1) W, W, L --- 2) W, L, W --- 3) L, W, W
Odds that Deep Throw It had a win in Week 1 based on the scores of the other teams = 4/9 = 44%
Odds of Week 1 loss = 5/9 = 55%
Odds of Week 2 win = 2/9 = 22%
Odds of Week 2 loss = 7/9 = 77%
Odds of Week 3 win = 4/9 = 44%
Odds of Week 3 loss = 5/9 = 55%
1) W, W, L = 44% * 22% * 55% = 5.5%
2) W, L, W = 44% * 77% * 44% = 15.3%
3) L, W, W = 55% * 22% * 44% = 5.5%
Total = 5.5% + 15.3% + 5.5% = 26.3%
So Deep Throw It has defied the odds by quite a bit. There was only a 26.3% chance that he'd escape these 3 weeks with exactly 2-1 record. In fact, he had a 24% chance of being 0-3-0:
55% * 77% * 55% = 24.0%
Yet he sits at 2-1-0.
Some matchups I'm keen on observing next week:
Boston TD Party vs Bulldogs
This one should be the "Toyota Biggest Fantasy Blowout".
TEAM RIHANNA vs TEAM CHRIS BROWN
The battle of the ALL CAPS teams. And there's also some history between the two.
I expect this week's matchup to end in the same results.
Deep Throw It vs Greek gods
I think I'm going to enjoy watching this one.
Chao all.
And Dave, maybe for our sake, could you tell us WHY exactly you're so against fractional points?