Armchair Thoughts

As I'm sure all of you greatly missed it last season, I decided to bring back the league blog! For the two new member of the Armchair League, a year or two ago I recapped each week with a blog post, also including any (not-so) clever banter, Youtube clips, or anything else I feel like including each week. So since we are missing Week 1, I figured I'd give my two cents about the results of the auction. Overall, I think everyone's team looks pretty even, but there are some more than others (*cough* Schneider *cough*) who fared well. What I decided to do was to give my thoughts on each team by talking about one guy they might have reached for and one guy they got a deal on. As always, I welcome feed back, even if it's completely disagreeing and stating what a fool I am (which I look to Mike and Jack for usually).

[sno]KONY Dynasty-Mike
Overpay: Josh Johnson $15- This one really depends on Johnson's health. The past couple of years when he has been healthy, Josh Johnson has been a very solid pitcher. The only problem is I feel like he gets injured rather frequently. There were more pitchers that went for the same price that are more consistent and don't have the health concerns that Johnson does.
Great Deal: Jesus Montero $1-This was one of my favorite pickups, and it's an even better buy for how our league is set up going forward. Even if Jesus Montero will now be playing at the pitcher-friendly Safeco Field, he still is one of the best young hitters in the league. The fact that Mike will be able to keep him (if he so chooses) for a buck next year and then can sign him to a very friendly long-term deal makes it an even better deal. Clearly the rest of us were sleeping when this nomination came.

Comps Ratio-Andy
Overpay: Michael Young $19- It's hard to come up with an overpay when a team leaves $35 on the table at the draft, but I think this would be my choice. Young usually is pretty consistent with the average, but the power he used to have has all but left him. When a guy like Mark Texeira goes for a dollar more than Young, I feel pretty safe saying that Tex will outperform Young. I also think that Ted Lily has no business being nominated in this shallow of an auction either.
Great Deal: Lance Berkman $7- This buy will also have to work out health wise, but, opposite of Josh Johnson, I think the health factor worked in Schneider's favor. While I don't expect Berkman to mash like he did last year, he still will be a double digit value player, so getting for $7 was pretty good.

Zihuatanejo-Dave
Overpay: Billy Butler $7-This was a mistake on my part. I didn't want Butler to begin with, but I saw that Schneider had been kicked off and the computer was bidding for him, so I figured I'd try and bump the price up at least to what Yahoo! recommended. This still was somewhat decent value for Butler, but with already having a couple first basemen and then getting Big Papi, Butler was probably overkill.
Great Deal: Freddie Freeman $2- Even though I already had a couple of first basemen, Freeman at only $2 was too tough to pass up. He finished second in the National League Rookie of the Year ballots, and that should usually bring a guy to close to ten bucks. I was very happen, and depending on how he performs and improves, he is a definite keeper candidate.

TBD2-Jack
Overpay: Heath Bell $16- This is more of a personal preference, but most of you know that I hate to pay that much for closers. Bell was the most expensive closer. He is a good one, but with the volatility of closers within the league every single year, it's hard to justify spending this much, especially when one could argue Bell isn't even in the top 5 of closers.
Great Deal: Alexei Ramirez $3- Looking closer at Jack's lineup, he put a disturbingly large amount of his budget on pitching. He was able to do that by finding some deals like Ramirez. Alexei really is closer to being a double digit player, as he is one of the top 10 shortstops in the league. It's pretty clear Jack though that heavy pitching was the way to go, so it should be interesting to see how this plays out, as there usually is more pitching available on the waiver wire than hitting. As always, Jack provides us with an interesting case study.

Goose's Flock-Ellingboe
Overpay: David Price $21-I actually like Ellingboe's team a lot. He paid the price for the guys he wanted, and then grabbed a bunch of buck-a-player guys to fill in after that. He got the top shortstop and catcher, as well as a comeback candidate that can play 3b (Hanley). That being said, paying $21 for Price is a little pricey (I know, I know...too easy). Price quietly has become a dominant pitcher, but there are some guys I like a little more that went for less.
Great Deal: Victor Martinez $1- Really, one of us should have stepped in and at least bid Goose up a little bit for this steal. Yes, we know Martinez is out for the year, but Brian can stash VMart on the DL for the whole year and keep him for a buck next year. This will work out great if the rest of Brian's team stays healthy, otherwise it'll be tough to stash a guy on the DL the whole year.

Tony McDonald-Tony
Overpay: Stephen Strasburg $20- Obviously it's hard not to like Strasburg's blazing heater, but the fact of the matter is that he did have Tommy John surgery, and he's not throwing near as hard as what made him famous. In comparison, Cole Hamels went for the same price as Strasburg. Yes, Strasburg has a lot of upside, but you're kidding yourself if you're saying Strasburg is more likely to have the better season between the two.
Great Deal: Giancarlo Stanton $20-This one is pretty close to the right value for Stanton, but if Stanton ever figures out a way to get his average up, he'll be a bigger monster than he already is. He provides a lot of power, which is obviously a hot commodity.

TBD-Riley
Overpay: Carlos Beltran $17-File this one in the category of injury risk as well. If Beltran stays healthy, there's a chance that he could fulfill this value. It's still a small chance my opinion, so $17 is just too rich for my blood. He is injured more often than he is healthy, so it's just hard to justify this price.
Great Deal: Jimmy Rollins $12- Rollins is one of those guys that have been around for so long it seems like everyone kind of gets bored with him. I think that might have had something to do with the price he went for. He's past his prime, but there's still a possibility he could hit 20 dingers and 30 steals, which still has value, obviously.

3 First Names-JP
Overpay: Yu Darvish $14-There's just too many unknowns, in my opinion, for Darvish to go for this much. Does he have the stuff? Of course, but can he last against major league hitters over a longer season in the Texas heat? I'm more than skeptical.
Great Deal: Andrew Bailey $3- Low price for a closer for one of the top teams in the league? Pretty good deal. Low price for high upside. There is an injury risk, but for $3, it's worth the risk, especially with how many relievers JP picked up.

Defending Champion
Overpay: Joe Mauer $20- Homer tax and everything, this was way too much to spend on Mauer the Milker. Obviously, if he returns to his MVP type form, then it's worth the $20. I don't see that happening however, as Mauer has barely been able to stay healthy, whether it be pneumonia or the nefarious bilateral leg weakness.
Great Deal: Paul Goldschmidt $4- This is another high-upside, low risk. Goldschmidt will probably get full playing time with the Dbacks. He could definitely be the new Mark Reynolds, a guy who can hit the ball a mile but strikes out A LOT. If he cashes in on the power, he could hit 30 dingers, which would be amazing for only $4.

BilateralLegWeakness
Overpay: Madison Bumgarner $15- I struggled to find an overpay with Mooch's team, as I also like his team a lot. Bumgarner could potentially make the Giants strong duo into a trio, but it's no guarantee. There were a lot of guys who have proven a lot more in their careers than Bumgarner, so we'll see how this one plays out.
Great Deal: Matt Wieters $6- I've always kind of liked Wieters, despite the fact he hasn't necessarily put everything together yet to become the megastar people claimed he was going to be. If he can put it all together this year, or even most of it together, than he is definitely worth the $6 it took to get him.

I was planning on ranking how I think the teams will finish this season, but normally that leads to more criticism and ridicule, and people get offended when I pick their teams to finish last. With that being the case, I'd love to hear others' thoughts on the auction, both how it turned out and how it ran. I'm very excited about this year, specially with the added element of keepers, auction dollars and future draft picks to trade, and the fact that baseball is back!