It's already Week 4 Week 5, gentlemen. Can you believe it? Who else is still trying to read the fine print on our newfangled rule book? At least we've got one trade on the way already this season. So what were the terms of that deal again? Joe is giving Brian (Or do we call you Goose?) Matt Moore, four of this year's FAAB dollars plus a 2014 minor league second round draft pick, his sister's phone number, and $3.14 in real money? And in return Goose is trading Aroldis Chapman and the rights of his co-manager Scooter? Is that right? Sounds like a blockbuster. It really makes me nostalgic about the good ol days when managers traded players straight up with each (Or in the case of Dave when he signed on to Benny's team and traded with himself. Heyyy-oh! Sorry Dave, I feel that it's mandatory that I take at least one jab at you per blog post to stir the pot.)
Back to baseball. Okay, maybe we were never on that subject yet. What have we learned in the first three weeks? Bats, do indeed, hit crazy. The Goose's flock has yet to fly back north for the summer. And Matt Kemp is a Greek god.
And that's about all I have for subjective analysis because I promised to stick to the numbers this on this blog. Over a few dozen drinks this weekend with our league's legal team (Riley), I promised him I'd try to mix in an array of analyses that would come in shorter spurts but more frequently. It would be more of the same old that we've seen in the past. Review of last week, preview of the upcoming week, playoff predictions (might be further down the line), and other shenanigans. I'll see what I can do. If there's anything you guys would like me to crunch then let me know. As long as it's objective. So help me if it's subjective and Dave-like I will end you.
WEEK 5 PREVIEW
So let's see. Who do we got this week?
So I know I tweak my methodology every year, and this year is no different. Essentially I'm taking the season-long projections of everyone's players and scale them to spit out what a given player with do for a given week. I add them all up for each team and get a team's weekly projection. Then from there I did some mathy stuff to roughly get how likely a team will beat another team in a given category. So I could tell you how likely Joe will beat JP in HRs in a given week based on their current rosters. Saves are a little trickier because they're so hard to predict. Projections in themselves are tough to get right but it's the best tool we have. So why am I not showing you the whole grid? Well simply it wouldn't be in my best interest to serve as a manager in this league and also a conslutant for every team and show them where they have glaring weaknesses.
Since I've written so much already, I'll just let you digest the above table for now and skip the summaries of each matchup. Enjoy your week.
Oh and this is why we can't have nice things.
Jack, every year your numbers seem to shade in your favor. Some personal bias sneaking in that Excel document.
Of note: 2 teams have already advertised their suckiness. A few more are nearing that cliff (myself included as my guys think attaining the greatest amount of losses without wins is like some secret cheat code to victory)
As far as what I'm referred to as....you, Joe, Andy, and Riley know me as goose. I prefer that. I'm not used to being called Brian anymore....I don't really like it.