Welcome back, all. I am pleased to bring you this week's WIR from the comfort of my very own home. Yes, school is out for me. Summer hasn't *officially* started yet for me. The Johnnie Baseball team swept Gustavus by way of two walk off extra inning hits to clinch a MIAC playoff birth, falling one game shy of the Tommies for MIAC champs. So I'll be back up to Collegeville tomorrow until the playoffs next week. Nonetheless, school is done. Which means I can spend [even] more time on fantasy baseball.
Last week, I pointed out a matchups that deemed to be a blowout. Joe's Torn Ligament squared off against Drunk Hot Girl Scout in an inter divisional showdown. Two two teams sat on opposite ends of the standings, however Joe won only 6-5-1. We caught up with Joe after the game, and when asked about his opponent, he replied with, "The Cafferty of old is back".
Any objective statements such as this prompts me to look to the numbers. Here are Caff's numbers from the first 5 weeks:
| Week | WeekRank | ActW% | PredW% | BatPredW% | PitchPredW% |
| 1 | Drunk Hot Girl Scout | 0.292 | 0.375 | 0.213 | 0.537 |
| 2 | Drunk Hot Girl Scout | 0.625 | 0.542 | 0.333 | 0.750 |
| 3 | Drunk Hot Girl Scout | 0.250 | 0.255 | 0.009 | 0.500 |
| 4 | Drunk Hot Girl Scout | 0.375 | 0.241 | 0.287 | 0.194 |
| 5 | Drunk Hot Girl Scout | 0.417 | 0.560 | 0.519 | 0.602 |
As we can see, Mike had his best week thusfar in Week 5, and it seems that his improvement in the batting categories were the reason why. So give Joe a +1 for his observational skills. However, can Caff maintain these numbers? Only the future knows ...
Batting and Pitching PredW% from last week:
| Week | Raw | Batter | Pitcher | PredW% |
| 5 | Make It Rain (TFP) | 0.361 | 0.639 | 0.500 |
| 5 | Enter Sandman | 0.694 | 0.880 | 0.787 |
| 5 | Sexual Napalm | 0.361 | 0.259 | 0.310 |
| 5 | Maewyn Succat | 0.074 | 0.213 | 0.144 |
| 5 | La Furia Roja | 0.472 | 0.370 | 0.421 |
| 5 | The Master Baker | 0.444 | 0.472 | 0.458 |
| 5 | Drunk Hot Girl Scout | 0.519 | 0.602 | 0.560 |
| 5 | Winston Wolfe | 0.685 | 0.306 | 0.495 |
| 5 | Dmitri Petrovich | 0.685 | 0.657 | 0.671 |
| 5 | Joe's Torn Ligament | 0.704 | 0.602 | 0.653 |
It looks like Enter Sandman took those comments of mine last week about him having the luckiest team and responded by posting an absurdly phenomenal week. He was almost unbeatable in his pitching categories. As for Maewyn Succat, they deserved their 1-11-1 pounding last week. However, Make It Rain (TFP) got very lucky that they drew Maewyn Succat for the week. They would have only gotten a winning percentage of .500 had they faced any random team for the week. But since they were matched up against the worst team this week, they gain about an extra 5 wins in the overall standings.
Overall Adjusted Standings
| Division | WeekCatW% | ActW% | PredW% | DeltaW | MatchupW% |
| DS | Joe's Torn Ligament | 0.558 | 0.636 | -4.7 | 0.840 |
| TK | Make It Rain (TFP) | 0.617 | 0.589 | 1.7 | 0.728 |
| TK | Sexual Napalm | 0.525 | 0.521 | 0.2 | 0.564 |
| TK | Dmitri Petrovich | 0.483 | 0.511 | -1.7 | 0.534 |
| TK | The Master Baker | 0.500 | 0.501 | -0.1 | 0.499 |
| DS | Maewyn Succat | 0.433 | 0.470 | -2.2 | 0.416 |
| DS | Enter Sandman | 0.567 | 0.465 | 6.1 | 0.399 |
| DS | La Furia Roja | 0.425 | 0.460 | -2.1 | 0.382 |
| TK | Winston Wolfe | 0.450 | 0.452 | -0.1 | 0.366 |
| DS | Drunk Hot Girl Scout | 0.392 | 0.394 | -0.2 | 0.221 |
I've decided to do less commentary here so I'll let the numbers do most of the taking as regard to who is best, worst, overrated, underrated, etc.
Playoff Odds
Since I haven't gotten to my post explaining how this works, you all again are just going to have to take it as it is. Basically, though, I simulated the season 5000 times (since it takes about 10 minutes to do 1000 simulations) and see how many times each team made the playoffs:
| W% | RANK | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | PLAYOFF | |
| Make It Rain (TFP) | 0.565 | 2.150 | 39.4% | 33.0% | 13.9% | 6.5% | 3.7% | 2.1% | 98.6% |
| Enter Sandman | 0.500 | 5.374 | 2.2% | 6.9% | 11.8% | 16.9% | 16.2% | 13.8% | 67.8% |
| Sexual Napalm | 0.511 | 4.661 | 4.6% | 11.2% | 18.7% | 17.7% | 15.4% | 12.1% | 79.6% |
| Maewyn Succat | 0.472 | 6.987 | 0.2% | 1.4% | 4.6% | 8.0% | 10.9% | 13.0% | 38.2% |
| La Furia Roja | 0.467 | 7.244 | 0.5% | 1.7% | 3.7% | 6.6% | 8.7% | 12.5% | 33.7% |
| The Master Baker | 0.511 | 4.727 | 4.5% | 11.0% | 18.3% | 16.3% | 15.4% | 12.9% | 78.4% |
| Drunk Hot Girl Scout | 0.443 | 8.464 | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 2.3% | 4.1% | 7.3% | 14.7% |
| Winston Wolfe | 0.458 | 7.791 | 0.1% | 0.6% | 2.5% | 4.1% | 6.8% | 9.9% | 24.0% |
| Dmitri Petrovich | 0.502 | 5.213 | 2.9% | 7.9% | 14.1% | 16.3% | 15.8% | 14.3% | 71.2% |
| Joe's Torn Ligament | 0.570 | 1.970 | 48.8% | 28.4% | 10.7% | 5.9% | 3.3% | 1.6% | 98.7% |
League Strength
| LeagueASS 3.0 | ActW% | PredW% | MatchupW% | Batter | Pitcher |
| Tom Kocon | 0.510 | 0.508 | 0.528 | 0.525 | 0.492 |
| Dan Stuart | 0.490 | 0.492 | 0.472 | 0.475 | 0.508 |
Predictions
Since it is already the beginning of Week 6, I decided to give next week's predictions based on our data to date. Again, this is the probability that a team does better than a tie against their opponent. This can be done by going 6-5-0 or better. Even 3-2-6 counts as a matchup win. Let's observe:
| Week | Matchup | Division | Team | MatchupW% |
| 6 | 1 | TK | Make It Rain (TFP) | 81.3% |
| 6 | 1 | DS | La Furia Roja | 18.7% |
| 6 | 2 | DS | Joe's Torn Ligament | 94.9% |
| 6 | 2 | DS | Drunk Hot Girl Scout | 5.1% |
| 6 | 3 | TK | Dmitri Petrovich | 66.6% |
| 6 | 3 | TK | Winston Wolfe | 33.4% |
| 6 | 4 | TK | The Master Baker | 60.0% |
| 6 | 4 | DS | Enter Sandman | 40.0% |
| 6 | 5 | TK | Sexual Napalm | 64.5% |
| 6 | 5 | DS | Maewyn Succat | 35.5% |
And lastly (but not least ... ly) we have MEDIA!
What's a WIR without Unnecessary Censorship?
Also, if you haven't seen the Legendary Performance of Rojo Johnson, I suggest you do so:
Until next week everyone, best of luck to all finals takers.
A very special Happy Mothers Day goes out to all of the women that birthed our Armchair Managers. Why am I writing this extra post instead of spending time with my mother on this day? Well as we have seen in the past, the more that I probably shouldn't be focusing on fantasy baseball, the more I do. [Spain, finals week, etc ...] So today I have decided to give a small series of articles on my methodology. I know I have done some shorthand stuff in the past, but due to Dave's suggestion, I will use this as my definitive explanation.
This article will deal with perhaps the heart of all my statistics: Predicted Winning Percentage (PredW%). Its name attempts to do exactly what it should; give a better indicator of what your W% should be, based on how you have done compared with the rest of the league, opposed to just your head to head opponents. So earlier in the season, your Actual Win Percentage (ActW%) and PredW% may be a bit different (indicating bad/good luck with who you have been matched up against) but as time goes on, these numbers have shown to converge toward each other.
By comparing your weekly totals with the rest of the league rather than only one team, we get a better indicator of how well your team is within the league, simply enough. So let's go through the math of it, shall we? I first look at everyone's category stats for a single week. Let's observe Week 4:
| Week | Raw | R | HR | RBI | SB | AVG | OPS | W | L | SV | K | ERA | WHIP |
| 4 | Make It Rain (TFP) | 37 | 13 | 34 | 6 | 0.29 | 0.887 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 57 | 3.52 | 1.14 |
| 4 | Enter Sandman | 24 | 5 | 27 | 3 | 0.231 | 0.648 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 76 | 3.92 | 1.38 |
| 4 | Sexual Napalm | 32 | 8 | 30 | 5 | 0.306 | 0.888 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 44 | 2.78 | 1.25 |
| 4 | Maewyn Succat | 32 | 6 | 37 | 7 | 0.357 | 0.99 | 10 | 4 | 4 | 93 | 2.83 | 1.21 |
| 4 | La Furia Roja | 35 | 7 | 35 | 4 | 0.265 | 0.774 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 64 | 5.83 | 1.55 |
| 4 | The Master Baker | 33 | 14 | 41 | 3 | 0.278 | 0.909 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 60 | 1.45 | 1.11 |
| 4 | Drunk Hot Girl Scout | 34 | 4 | 16 | 3 | 0.245 | 0.701 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 46 | 6.15 | 1.58 |
| 4 | Winston Wolfe | 30 | 8 | 26 | 3 | 0.278 | 0.853 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 54 | 3.3 | 1.31 |
| 4 | Dmitri Petrovich | 30 | 8 | 33 | 2 | 0.229 | 0.694 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 94 | 2.76 | 1.12 |
| 4 | Joe's Torn Ligament | 32 | 3 | 22 | 10 | 0.251 | 0.691 | 8 | 4 | 6 | 78 | 4.11 | 1.38 |
Next, I don't pay any attention to who plays whom for the week. I simply look at each category for each team and ask, "How many other teams would I beat this week for this category?" For example, look at the HR category for Make It Rain (TFP). He had 13 HRs on the week. If we were to look at how many other teams he would have beaten, we can see that since he had the 2nd most HR, he would have beaten 8 out of the other 9 teams, good for a winning percentage of .889 for that category. However, as luck would have it, Make It Rain (TFP) played against Joe's Torn Ligament this week (which was randomly determined by the scheduling). So even though he had the 2nd best HR count in the league, he got 0 points. My system gets rid of the matchup situation and awards people wins compared to the league. So I do this for every team in the league and come up with individual W% for each category for each team:
| WeekRank | R | HR | RBI | SB | AVG | OPS | W | L | SV | K | ERA | WHIP | PredW% |
| Make It Rain (TFP) | 1.000 | 0.889 | 0.667 | 0.778 | 0.778 | 0.667 | 0.500 | 0.389 | 0.556 | 0.333 | 0.444 | 0.778 | 0.648 |
| Enter Sandman | 0.000 | 0.222 | 0.333 | 0.278 | 0.111 | 0.000 | 0.500 | 0.111 | 0.556 | 0.667 | 0.333 | 0.278 | 0.282 |
| Sexual Napalm | 0.444 | 0.667 | 0.444 | 0.667 | 0.889 | 0.778 | 0.500 | 0.778 | 0.056 | 0.000 | 0.778 | 0.556 | 0.546 |
| Maewyn Succat | 0.444 | 0.333 | 0.889 | 0.889 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 0.389 | 0.556 | 0.889 | 0.667 | 0.667 | 0.727 |
| La Furia Roja | 0.889 | 0.444 | 0.778 | 0.556 | 0.444 | 0.444 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.889 | 0.556 | 0.111 | 0.111 | 0.435 |
| The Master Baker | 0.667 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 0.278 | 0.611 | 0.889 | 0.500 | 1.000 | 0.556 | 0.444 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 0.745 |
| Drunk Hot Girl Scout | 0.778 | 0.111 | 0.000 | 0.278 | 0.222 | 0.333 | 0.222 | 0.778 | 0.056 | 0.111 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.241 |
| Winston Wolfe | 0.167 | 0.667 | 0.222 | 0.278 | 0.611 | 0.556 | 0.111 | 0.778 | 0.222 | 0.222 | 0.556 | 0.444 | 0.403 |
| Dmitri Petrovich | 0.167 | 0.667 | 0.556 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.222 | 0.833 | 0.389 | 0.556 | 1.000 | 0.889 | 0.889 | 0.514 |
| Joe's Torn Ligament | 0.444 | 0.000 | 0.111 | 1.000 | 0.333 | 0.111 | 0.833 | 0.389 | 1.000 | 0.778 | 0.222 | 0.278 | 0.458 |
So PredW% for each week, is just the average of each category. It just gives a number that shows, compared to the rest of the league for that week, how good you typically were for each category. So once we know how good a team is for a particular week, I simply average those out with every other week to give the current, all encompassing PredW% you all see in my WIRs. For instance, Make It Rain (TFP) had a PredW% for RBIs of .778 in Week 1, 1.000 in Week 2, .889 in Week 3, and .667 for Week 4 (as we can see above). So if we average them out, we should see that they should have won about .833 of their RBI categories. We can look at our Head to Head W% Stats and compare our predicted W% vs actual W% for this category. We see Make It Rain (TFP) is 2-2-0 in the RBI category on the year, or .500. Based on the first four weeks of the year, we can see they are a very good RBI team thus far, yet his actual W% is only .500. Therefore, I would expect these two numbers to become closer and closer as time goes on and luck thins out. He has been very unlucky thusfar in my opinion, and if he continues to put up similar RBI totals compared to the league, there's no doubt he will start beating teams in the RBI category more regularly and his actual RBI W% will climb.
So when I post PredW% each week in my WIR, it's basically an average on where you rank in each category each week compared to the rest of the league. I do have data from last year that shows that as the season goes on, this is a better predictor of future W% than actual W% at any given point throughout the year. So if we're looking for how a team will do in the future, look to my stats and not the league stats as a better indicator.
Anyway, if there's anymore that needs to be explained, call, reply, text, e-mail, wall post, or whatever you care to do to contact me and I'd be happy to settle any confusion.
Until next time people, pleasant fantasy baseballing.
I apologize my fellow Armchairsmen for the complete lack of weekly recaps. I really have been slacking so far this year, and it is more because of laziness on my part than to what Jack suggests. Funny that he does mention the business venture known as The A-List. Despite the promotion by both our former high school and Brian Salzer on Facebook, myself and Andy both are no longer a part of Matt Norris's organization. In fact, we both haven't been a part of it for a couple of months now, but I don't want to bore you with the details of such things.
Anyways, back to the most pressing matters, the on-goings of our league. As usual, Mr. Johnston sits atop a division, and also almost has as many moves as the Tom Kocon division as a whole. Speaking of good ole TK, my brother Ben has the pleasure of playing for him this year. The team has been highly successful this year with only three losses, including a 30-1 drubbing of Cooper. I highly doubt this has something to do with both Coach Kocon and Mr. Brenk's coaching abilities, even though Kocon still has a great curveball. He has yet to make anyone run around fences, and it doesn't sound like he has someone like Tony Schuler on the team this year. Ah, those were the days...
Surprisingly, Tony Mac is still in the mix, but as Jack has said, it still is quite early. We'll see what happens once we hit Memorial Day. Drunk Hot Girl Scout's manager must still be inebriated from Mifflin, because his team has not exactly performed well so far. Other than those shots, I don't have too much to say about the results of the league so far. Although, there are some things I would like to address from previous posts:
1. Money
I'm fine with everyone giving money to Joe, but I do know that in the past money is never collected because no one ever sees everyone. This is even harder once the season starts because less and less people are willing to pay. I just thought LeagueSafe would be an easy way, but apparently not everyone is ready for that yet. So in that case, everyone needs to get their ten dollars to Joe ASAP so we have that money already.
2. Relegation
Love the idea Jack. I actually think this is something that actual leagues should consider as well. Just think, do you think the Timberwolves would keep tanking if it meant being relegated to the D-League? Even David Kahn isn't that crazy. As far as instituting it in our league, I think this is a great way to get more people involved in the league. The only problems I see with it would be finding people that most of us know that would be interested and maintaining interest if you were in the lower league. This concept is obviously for the diehards and while I do think we have some in this league, I don't think we can say that about everyone.
3. Fines
I do understand that a dollar might be steep and that people may forget once in a while, but when you think about it, wouldn't you be spending the money on bringing something to the football draft anyways? Also, if it is only on one certain day that this fine can be instituted, then wouldn't that be easier to manage. Say if we do it on Monday mornings, that gives you plenty of time to check your lineup. After all, most of us manage this well enough that I don't think it would effect us that much. Maybe I will keep track this year just to see how this proposed fine would impact the league. I also think this is a much more viable thing for fantasy football (with bye weeks) so maybe I will take up the cause again this fall.
4. Your formulas
I do applaud the countless hours you have put into them Jack, but I feel like no one actually understands how they work, so it doesn't create a whole lot of chatter. Is there a way you can fix that, I don't know, but that's just my opinion. One thing I think would be cool to look at is the whole spot starter concept - is it worth it to continue to stream the Brandon Morrows of the baseball world, or does it hurt rate stats like ERA and WHIP too much. That would be interesting to see how a study like that would play out. Keep up the good work.
Well I think that is enough for all of you to chew on for now, but I hope to address and bring up more ideas and issues in future weeks, including switching our draft format to an auction- scary I know, but it might be more fun than you think.
Oly's Rankings
1. Sexual Napalm
2. Joe's Torn Ligament
3. Enter Sandman
4. Make it Rain
5.Maewyn Succat
6. Winston Wolfe
7. The Master Baker
8. La Furia Roja
9. Dmitri Petrovich
10. Drunk Hot Girl Scout
Da Commish's Hot Clicks of the Week
I don't know how I couldn't start out with what happened at the Phillies game last night. Makes me never want to storm a court or field ever.
Fear the Deer! Literally
Our Armchair Fantasy Girl Blake Lively makes an appearance at a gala in the NYC
Don't know how many Notre Dame fans we have in our league, but this is comedy at its highest level.
This is probably a little late, but since I haven't done a post in a while, here's Merton the Chat Roulette guy.
And last but not least the Song of the Day, let's go a little country with Craig Morgan's This Ain't Nothing
Until next week fellas, good luck to everyone with their finals