Armchair Thoughts

Welcome back, all. I am pleased to bring you this week's WIR from the comfort of my very own home. Yes, school is out for me. Summer hasn't *officially* started yet for me. The Johnnie Baseball team swept Gustavus by way of two walk off extra inning hits to clinch a MIAC playoff birth, falling one game shy of the Tommies for MIAC champs. So I'll be back up to Collegeville tomorrow until the playoffs next week. Nonetheless, school is done. Which means I can spend [even] more time on fantasy baseball.

Last week, I pointed out a matchups that deemed to be a blowout. Joe's Torn Ligament squared off against Drunk Hot Girl Scout in an inter divisional showdown. Two two teams sat on opposite ends of the standings, however Joe won only 6-5-1. We caught up with Joe after the game, and when asked about his opponent, he replied with, "The Cafferty of old is back".

Any objective statements such as this prompts me to look to the numbers. Here are Caff's numbers from the first 5 weeks:

Week	WeekRank	ActW%	PredW%	BatPredW%	PitchPredW%
1	Drunk Hot Girl Scout	0.292	0.375	0.213	0.537
2	Drunk Hot Girl Scout	0.625	0.542	0.333	0.750
3	Drunk Hot Girl Scout	0.250	0.255	0.009	0.500
4	Drunk Hot Girl Scout	0.375	0.241	0.287	0.194
5	Drunk Hot Girl Scout	0.417	0.560	0.519	0.602

As we can see, Mike had his best week thusfar in Week 5, and it seems that his improvement in the batting categories were the reason why. So give Joe a +1 for his observational skills. However, can Caff maintain these numbers? Only the future knows ...

Batting and Pitching PredW% from last week:

Week	Raw	Batter	Pitcher	PredW%
5	Make It Rain (TFP)	0.361	0.639	0.500
5	Enter Sandman	0.694	0.880	0.787
5	Sexual Napalm	0.361	0.259	0.310
5	Maewyn Succat	0.074	0.213	0.144
5	La Furia Roja	0.472	0.370	0.421
5	The Master Baker	0.444	0.472	0.458
5	Drunk Hot Girl Scout	0.519	0.602	0.560
5	Winston Wolfe	0.685	0.306	0.495
5	Dmitri Petrovich	0.685	0.657	0.671
5	Joe's Torn Ligament	0.704	0.602	0.653

It looks like Enter Sandman took those comments of mine last week about him having the luckiest team and responded by posting an absurdly phenomenal week. He was almost unbeatable in his pitching categories. As for Maewyn Succat, they deserved their 1-11-1 pounding last week. However, Make It Rain (TFP) got very lucky that they drew Maewyn Succat for the week. They would have only gotten a winning percentage of .500 had they faced any random team for the week. But since they were matched up against the worst team this week, they gain about an extra 5 wins in the overall standings.

Overall Adjusted Standings

Division	WeekCatW%	ActW%	PredW%	DeltaW	MatchupW%
DS	Joe's Torn Ligament	0.558	0.636	-4.7	0.840
TK	Make It Rain (TFP)	0.617	0.589	1.7	0.728
TK	Sexual Napalm	0.525	0.521	0.2	0.564
TK	Dmitri Petrovich	0.483	0.511	-1.7	0.534
TK	The Master Baker	0.500	0.501	-0.1	0.499
DS	Maewyn Succat	0.433	0.470	-2.2	0.416
DS	Enter Sandman	0.567	0.465	6.1	0.399
DS	La Furia Roja	0.425	0.460	-2.1	0.382
TK	Winston Wolfe	0.450	0.452	-0.1	0.366
DS	Drunk Hot Girl Scout	0.392	0.394	-0.2	0.221

I've decided to do less commentary here so I'll let the numbers do most of the taking as regard to who is best, worst, overrated, underrated, etc.

Playoff Odds

Since I haven't gotten to my post explaining how this works, you all again are just going to have to take it as it is. Basically, though, I simulated the season 5000 times (since it takes about 10 minutes to do 1000 simulations) and see how many times each team made the playoffs:

	W%	RANK	1	2	3	4	5	6	PLAYOFF
Make It Rain (TFP)	0.565	2.150	39.4%	33.0%	13.9%	6.5%	3.7%	2.1%	98.6%
Enter Sandman	0.500	5.374	2.2%	6.9%	11.8%	16.9%	16.2%	13.8%	67.8%
Sexual Napalm	0.511	4.661	4.6%	11.2%	18.7%	17.7%	15.4%	12.1%	79.6%
Maewyn Succat	0.472	6.987	0.2%	1.4%	4.6%	8.0%	10.9%	13.0%	38.2%
La Furia Roja	0.467	7.244	0.5%	1.7%	3.7%	6.6%	8.7%	12.5%	33.7%
The Master Baker	0.511	4.727	4.5%	11.0%	18.3%	16.3%	15.4%	12.9%	78.4%
Drunk Hot Girl Scout	0.443	8.464	0.1%	0.3%	0.7%	2.3%	4.1%	7.3%	14.7%
Winston Wolfe	0.458	7.791	0.1%	0.6%	2.5%	4.1%	6.8%	9.9%	24.0%
Dmitri Petrovich	0.502	5.213	2.9%	7.9%	14.1%	16.3%	15.8%	14.3%	71.2%
Joe's Torn Ligament	0.570	1.970	48.8%	28.4%	10.7%	5.9%	3.3%	1.6%	98.7%

League Strength

LeagueASS 3.0	ActW%	PredW%	MatchupW%	Batter	Pitcher
Tom Kocon	0.510	0.508	0.528	0.525	0.492
Dan Stuart	0.490	0.492	0.472	0.475	0.508

Predictions

Since it is already the beginning of Week 6, I decided to give next week's predictions based on our data to date. Again, this is the probability that a team does better than a tie against their opponent. This can be done by going 6-5-0 or better. Even 3-2-6 counts as a matchup win. Let's observe:

Week	Matchup	Division	Team	MatchupW%
6	1	TK	Make It Rain (TFP)	81.3%
6	1	DS	La Furia Roja	18.7%
6	2	DS	Joe's Torn Ligament	94.9%
6	2	DS	Drunk Hot Girl Scout	5.1%
6	3	TK	Dmitri Petrovich	66.6%
6	3	TK	Winston Wolfe	33.4%
6	4	TK	The Master Baker	60.0%
6	4	DS	Enter Sandman	40.0%
6	5	TK	Sexual Napalm	64.5%
6	5	DS	Maewyn Succat	35.5%

And lastly (but not least ... ly) we have MEDIA!

What's a WIR without Unnecessary Censorship?



Also, if you haven't seen the Legendary Performance of Rojo Johnson, I suggest you do so:





Until next week everyone, best of luck to all finals takers.