Armchair Thoughts

Coming at you from Collegeville, MN, and right smack in the middle of hell finals week, I bring you this week's WIR. Speaking of finals week, I feel like the sailors in the movie Perfect Storm, after they decide to try to still come home through the bad weather and they're all looking in the distance at the weather realize how bad of a time they will be having. Yeah, that's me. However, I've been dutifully distracting myself with Fantasy Baseball.

“Neither rain, nor snow, nor sleet, nor hail shall keep the postmen from their appointed rounds.”

Yeah, the postman. That's me. Though I don't know what's been keeping Dave from his participation points in his weekly updates. Perhaps this booming business?

Onward to numbers. Let's take a look at last week's numbers.

WeekRank	Batter	Pitcher	Combined
Make It Rain (TFP)	0.796	0.500	0.648
Enter Sandman	0.157	0.407	0.282
Sexual Napalm	0.648	0.444	0.546
Maewyn Succat	0.759	0.694	0.727
La Furia Roja	0.593	0.278	0.435
The Master Baker	0.741	0.750	0.745
Drunk Hot Girl Scout	0.287	0.194	0.241
Winston Wolfe	0.417	0.389	0.403
Dmitri Petrovich	0.269	0.759	0.514
Joe's Torn Ligament	0.333	0.583	0.458

Best week? The Master Baker, who used a solid display both fielding and pitching. Too bad he was playing Make It Rain (TFP), #3 team from last week.
Worst week? Drunk Hot Girl Scout, who can't seem to quite get things on track yet. Luckily, he was matched up against Enter Sandman, and salvaged only a 4-7-1 defeat.

Onward. Now let's look at our Adjusted Standings Report:

Division	WeekCatW%	ActW%	PredW%	DeltaW	MatchupW%
DS	Joe's Torn Ligament	0.573	0.632	-2.8	0.835
TK	Make It Rain (TFP)	0.542	0.611	-3.3	0.783
TK	Sexual Napalm	0.615	0.574	1.9	0.713
DS	Maewyn Succat	0.521	0.552	-1.5	0.647
TK	The Master Baker	0.458	0.512	-2.6	0.531
TK	Dmitri Petrovich	0.417	0.471	-2.6	0.423
DS	La Furia Roja	0.469	0.470	-0.1	0.415
TK	Winston Wolfe	0.500	0.441	2.8	0.334
DS	Enter Sandman	0.521	0.384	6.6	0.200
DS	Drunk Hot Girl Scout	0.385	0.353	1.6	0.139

Joe maintains his league leading ways as we can see. Luckiest team? Enter Sandman. He sits at 5th place in the league, but 9th place in the standings. Perhaps he's winning close categories or has played a weak schedule thusfar. I haven't done SOS yet, so that'll have to wait. Unluckiest team? Make It Rain (TFP), who has been rivaling Joe in my numbers world, but is 3rd place in the league.

And now gentlemen, the moment you have all been waiting for. I have been known to log many hours pondering the ways of Fantasy Baseball, despite other educational tasks that should be getting done otherwise. But after I sent to you all last week my comment about how I hope to install a Playoff Odds sometime in the future, my mind became possessed. Every waking thought I had pondered how this feat could be achievable using my bits-and-pieces knowledge of computers. Well as you may have seen it on our league message board, I will say it again. I am proud to give to you, the 2010 Week 4 Playoff Odds:

	W%	RANK	1	2	3	4	5	6	PLAYOFF
Make It Rain (TFP)	0.554	2.68	29.2%	26.3%	19.0%	10.8%	7.3%	3.6%	96.2%
Enter Sandman	0.462	7.54	0.3%	0.9%	2.0%	4.4%	7.5%	12.2%	27.3%
Sexual Napalm	0.537	3.44	17.1%	19.7%	21.5%	14.9%	11.1%	7.3%	91.5%
Maewyn Succat	0.516	4.59	5.6%	11.0%	15.5%	20.0%	17.2%	11.9%	81.1%
La Furia Roja	0.484	6.33	1.7%	4.0%	6.1%	10.3%	13.5%	14.3%	49.8%
The Master Baker	0.505	5.12	4.2%	9.2%	12.4%	15.4%	16.4%	14.1%	71.7%
Drunk Hot Girl Scout	0.424	9.11	0.0%	0.1%	0.3%	1.0%	1.6%	3.0%	5.9%
Winston Wolfe	0.472	7.06	0.7%	1.4%	3.8%	6.3%	10.2%	14.2%	36.5%
Dmitri Petrovich	0.480	6.53	0.7%	2.8%	5.7%	9.5%	11.5%	15.9%	46.1%
Joe's Torn Ligament	0.567	2.22	42.1%	26.7%	15.0%	7.3%	4.2%	2.3%	97.7%

Now, before you all jump at me. There were many many many considerations that went into this project (Far more than any of you could ever suppose). So, I have decided to leave my rationale for another separate post, when finals are also not consuming my mind. Until then, please hold off your negative comments or questions (though positive comments are always welcome!). Also, I suppose you all will have to try to figure out what each category represents above ...

Onward again. Let's take a look at the season long rivalry that is Kocon/Stuart.

LeagueASS 3.0	ActW%	PredW%	MatchupW%	Batter	Pitcher
Tom Kocon	0.506	0.522	0.553	0.519	0.525
Dan Stuart	0.494	0.478	0.447	0.481	0.475

Again, my fellow Stuartmen, we have not regained our position on top that we had projected to take. Again, it's early. But it IS already past week 4 ...

Lastly, let us look at some matchups for next week.

Best chance of a matchup win? This might seem too obvious, but Joe's Torn Ligament DOES play Drunk Hot Girl Scout two weeks in a row. It looks as if the rich just keep getting richer.

Closest matchup? Dmitri Petrovich (who seems to have bounced back nicely after posting a goose egg a couple weeks ago) vs La Furia Roja. Both are stuck right in the middle of the pack and could use a catapulting league win.

Onward again. Oh wait, that means MEDIA!

I've become quite a fan of the Unnecessary Cenorship segment of Jimmy Kimmel Live:



And we have another video (perhaps not as G rated as ones in the past), but it's been circulating around my (very small) network of friends for the past few days.



Until next week gentlemen, when school will be out for the summer for me, but I will be having to stay up on campus for an extra week due to the playoff bound SJU Johnnie baseball team. Say a prayer for me my fellow Armchairsmen.