W7IR

0 comments Posted by Jack at 4:33 PM

Week 7 Evaluation

Week Matchup
Batter Pitcher PredW% ActW%
7 1 Winston Wolfe 0.824 0.593 0.708 0.917
7 4 Maewyn Succat 0.722 0.630 0.676 0.708
7 2 Joe's Torn Ligament 0.481 0.843 0.662 0.667
7 5 Make It Rain (TPF) 0.417 0.722 0.569 0.708
7 3 Dmitri Petrovich 0.306 0.676 0.491 0.500
7 2 Enter Sandman 0.685 0.194 0.440 0.333
7 3 Drunk Hot Girl Scout 0.454 0.380 0.417 0.500
7 5 Sexual Napalm 0.509 0.296 0.403 0.375
7 4 The Master Baker 0.426 0.380 0.403 0.292
7 1 La Furia Roja 0.176 0.287 0.231 0.083


Overall Adjusted Standings

Division WeekCatW% ActW% PredW% DeltaW MatchupW%
DS Joe's Torn Ligament 0.583 0.619 -3.0 0.806
TK Make It Rain (TPF) 0.613 0.564 4.1 0.670
DS Maewyn Succat 0.506 0.525 -1.6 0.568
TK Winston Wolfe 0.554 0.506 4.0 0.515
TK Sexual Napalm 0.488 0.501 -1.1 0.499
TK The Master Baker 0.470 0.491 -1.8 0.470
TK Dmitri Petrovich 0.458 0.489 -2.6 0.477
DS Enter Sandman 0.536 0.476 5.1 0.430
DS La Furia Roja 0.387 0.428 -3.4 0.306
DS Drunk Hot Girl Scout 0.417 0.401 1.3 0.234

Playoff Odds

W% RANK 1 2 3 4 5 6 PLAYOFF
Make It Rain (TPF) 0.575 2.0 37.0% 45.0% 9.9% 3.9% 2.8% 0.9% 99.5%
Enter Sandman 0.495 5.6 1.1% 2.1% 12.0% 15.0% 16.8% 16.9% 63.8%
Sexual Napalm 0.491 5.9 0.9% 2.5% 9.2% 13.2% 18.0% 17.6% 61.4%
Maewyn Succat 0.518 4.4 4.4% 5.8% 22.9% 24.0% 13.4% 15.3% 85.9%
La Furia Roja 0.428 8.9 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 1.9% 3.9% 6.0%
The Master Baker 0.493 5.7 0.5% 3.4% 8.5% 15.9% 18.9% 17.1% 64.2%
Drunk Hot Girl Scout 0.422 9.1 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 1.2% 1.2% 2.6%
Winston Wolfe 0.521 4.3 3.0% 9.0% 27.0% 20.3% 17.1% 12.2% 88.5%
Dmitri Petrovich 0.468 7.1 0.2% 0.4% 3.4% 5.5% 10.2% 15.0% 34.6%
Joe's Torn Ligament 0.587 1.7 55.9% 30.9% 8.6% 2.5% 1.2% 0.7% 99.8%


Next Week's Odds

Week Matchup
MatchupW%
8 1 La Furia Roja 33.3%
8 1 The Master Baker 66.7%




8 2 Sexual Napalm 19.4%
8 2 Joe's Torn Ligament 80.6%




8 3 Drunk Hot Girl Scout 22.4%
8 3 Winston Wolfe 77.6%




8 4 Enter Sandman 45.3%
8 4 Dmitri Petrovich 54.7%




8 5 Make It Rain (TPF) 60.8%
8 5 Maewyn Succat 39.2%

League Strength


 ActW% PredW% MatchupW% Batter Pitcher
Tom Kocon 0.514 0.510 0.531 0.501 0.519
Dan Stuart 0.486 0.490 0.469 0.499 0.481


Media





 

W6IR

0 comments Posted by Jack at 1:19 PM

We're just gonna give the numbers this week.

Week 6 Evaluation
Week Matchup WeekRank Batter Pitcher PredW%
6 5 Maewyn Succat 0.769 0.528 0.648
6 3 Winston Wolfe 0.556 0.593 0.574
6 4 Enter Sandman 0.815 0.315 0.565
6 4 The Master Baker 0.620 0.444 0.532
6 5 Sexual Napalm 0.463 0.528 0.495
6 2 Joe's Torn Ligament 0.426 0.556 0.491
6 1 La Furia Roja 0.574 0.352 0.463
6 1 Make It Rain (TPF) 0.315 0.556 0.435
6 2 Drunk Hot Girl Scout 0.259 0.574 0.417
6 3 Dmitri Petrovich 0.204 0.556 0.380

Overall Adjusted Standings

Division WeekCatW% ActW% PredW% DeltaW MatchupW%
DS Joe's Torn Ligament 0.569 0.612 -3.1 0.795
TK Make It Rain (TFP) 0.597 0.563 2.4 0.670
TK Sexual Napalm 0.507 0.517 -0.7 0.553
TK The Master Baker 0.500 0.506 -0.4 0.515
DS Maewyn Succat 0.472 0.500 -2.0 0.497
TK Dmitri Petrovich 0.451 0.489 -2.7 0.466
DS Enter Sandman 0.569 0.481 6.3 0.448
TK Winston Wolfe 0.493 0.472 1.5 0.421
DS La Furia Roja 0.438 0.461 -1.7 0.388
DS Drunk Hot Girl Scout 0.403 0.398 0.3 0.229

Playoff Odds


 W% RANK 1 2 3 4 5 6 PLAYOFF
Make It Rain (TPF) 0.564 2.1 40.6% 32.8% 13.7% 6.5% 3.1% 1.7% 98.4%
Enter Sandman 0.507 4.9 3.9% 8.8% 16.4% 16.9% 15.4% 12.9% 74.2%
Sexual Napalm 0.507 4.9 3.5% 10.0% 15.7% 16.9% 15.3% 12.9% 74.4%
Maewyn Succat 0.494 5.7 1.6% 5.2% 11.0% 13.8% 14.8% 14.8% 61.2%
La Furia Roja 0.460 7.7 0.2% 0.9% 2.5% 4.5% 7.0% 9.4% 24.6%
The Master Baker 0.503 5.1 3.3% 7.7% 15.6% 15.5% 16.0% 13.2% 71.3%
Drunk Hot Girl Scout 0.433 8.9 0.0% 0.1% 0.5% 1.3% 2.0% 3.9% 7.9%
Winston Wolfe 0.483 6.4 0.7% 2.7% 7.2% 9.7% 13.1% 15.1% 48.6%
Dmitri Petrovich 0.481 6.5 0.7% 2.6% 7.2% 9.7% 11.6% 14.7% 46.5%
Joe's Torn Ligament 0.568 1.9 46.5% 31.4% 11.3% 5.8% 2.6% 1.2% 98.7%


Next Week's Predictions

Week Matchup Division Team MatchupW%
7 1 TK Winston Wolfe 53.5%
7 1 DS La Furia Roja 46.5%





7 2 DS Joe's Torn Ligament 82.7%
7 2 DS Enter Sandman 17.3%





7 3 TK Dmitri Petrovich 74.6%
7 3 DS Drunk Hot Girl Scout 25.4%





7 4 TK The Master Baker 51.8%
7 4 DS Maewyn Succat 48.2%





7 5 TK Make It Rain (TPF) 62.1%
7 5 TK Sexual Napalm 37.9%


League Strength


ActW% PredW% MatchupW% Batter Pitcher
Tom Kocon 0.510 0.510 0.528 0.502 0.517
Dan Stuart 0.490 0.490 0.472 0.498 0.483

Media

I posted this on Facebook this morning, and it always gives me laugh:



Also, Unneccesary Censorship:


 

W5IR

0 comments Posted by Jack at 11:18 AM

Welcome back, all. I am pleased to bring you this week's WIR from the comfort of my very own home. Yes, school is out for me. Summer hasn't *officially* started yet for me. The Johnnie Baseball team swept Gustavus by way of two walk off extra inning hits to clinch a MIAC playoff birth, falling one game shy of the Tommies for MIAC champs. So I'll be back up to Collegeville tomorrow until the playoffs next week. Nonetheless, school is done. Which means I can spend [even] more time on fantasy baseball.

Last week, I pointed out a matchups that deemed to be a blowout. Joe's Torn Ligament squared off against Drunk Hot Girl Scout in an inter divisional showdown. Two two teams sat on opposite ends of the standings, however Joe won only 6-5-1. We caught up with Joe after the game, and when asked about his opponent, he replied with, "The Cafferty of old is back".

Any objective statements such as this prompts me to look to the numbers. Here are Caff's numbers from the first 5 weeks:

Week WeekRank ActW% PredW% BatPredW% PitchPredW%
1 Drunk Hot Girl Scout 0.292 0.375 0.213 0.537
2 Drunk Hot Girl Scout 0.625 0.542 0.333 0.750
3 Drunk Hot Girl Scout 0.250 0.255 0.009 0.500
4 Drunk Hot Girl Scout 0.375 0.241 0.287 0.194
5 Drunk Hot Girl Scout 0.417 0.560 0.519 0.602

As we can see, Mike had his best week thusfar in Week 5, and it seems that his improvement in the batting categories were the reason why. So give Joe a +1 for his observational skills. However, can Caff maintain these numbers? Only the future knows ...

Batting and Pitching PredW% from last week:

Week Raw Batter Pitcher PredW%
5 Make It Rain (TFP) 0.361 0.639 0.500
5 Enter Sandman 0.694 0.880 0.787
5 Sexual Napalm 0.361 0.259 0.310
5 Maewyn Succat 0.074 0.213 0.144
5 La Furia Roja 0.472 0.370 0.421
5 The Master Baker 0.444 0.472 0.458
5 Drunk Hot Girl Scout 0.519 0.602 0.560
5 Winston Wolfe 0.685 0.306 0.495
5 Dmitri Petrovich 0.685 0.657 0.671
5 Joe's Torn Ligament 0.704 0.602 0.653

It looks like Enter Sandman took those comments of mine last week about him having the luckiest team and responded by posting an absurdly phenomenal week. He was almost unbeatable in his pitching categories. As for Maewyn Succat, they deserved their 1-11-1 pounding last week. However, Make It Rain (TFP) got very lucky that they drew Maewyn Succat for the week. They would have only gotten a winning percentage of .500 had they faced any random team for the week. But since they were matched up against the worst team this week, they gain about an extra 5 wins in the overall standings.

Overall Adjusted Standings

Division WeekCatW% ActW% PredW% DeltaW MatchupW%
DS Joe's Torn Ligament 0.558 0.636 -4.7 0.840
TK Make It Rain (TFP) 0.617 0.589 1.7 0.728
TK Sexual Napalm 0.525 0.521 0.2 0.564
TK Dmitri Petrovich 0.483 0.511 -1.7 0.534
TK The Master Baker 0.500 0.501 -0.1 0.499
DS Maewyn Succat 0.433 0.470 -2.2 0.416
DS Enter Sandman 0.567 0.465 6.1 0.399
DS La Furia Roja 0.425 0.460 -2.1 0.382
TK Winston Wolfe 0.450 0.452 -0.1 0.366
DS Drunk Hot Girl Scout 0.392 0.394 -0.2 0.221


I've decided to do less commentary here so I'll let the numbers do most of the taking as regard to who is best, worst, overrated, underrated, etc.

Playoff Odds

Since I haven't gotten to my post explaining how this works, you all again are just going to have to take it as it is. Basically, though, I simulated the season 5000 times (since it takes about 10 minutes to do 1000 simulations) and see how many times each team made the playoffs:

W% RANK 1 2 3 4 5 6 PLAYOFF
Make It Rain (TFP) 0.565 2.150 39.4% 33.0% 13.9% 6.5% 3.7% 2.1% 98.6%
Enter Sandman 0.500 5.374 2.2% 6.9% 11.8% 16.9% 16.2% 13.8% 67.8%
Sexual Napalm 0.511 4.661 4.6% 11.2% 18.7% 17.7% 15.4% 12.1% 79.6%
Maewyn Succat 0.472 6.987 0.2% 1.4% 4.6% 8.0% 10.9% 13.0% 38.2%
La Furia Roja 0.467 7.244 0.5% 1.7% 3.7% 6.6% 8.7% 12.5% 33.7%
The Master Baker 0.511 4.727 4.5% 11.0% 18.3% 16.3% 15.4% 12.9% 78.4%
Drunk Hot Girl Scout 0.443 8.464 0.1% 0.3% 0.7% 2.3% 4.1% 7.3% 14.7%
Winston Wolfe 0.458 7.791 0.1% 0.6% 2.5% 4.1% 6.8% 9.9% 24.0%
Dmitri Petrovich 0.502 5.213 2.9% 7.9% 14.1% 16.3% 15.8% 14.3% 71.2%
Joe's Torn Ligament 0.570 1.970 48.8% 28.4% 10.7% 5.9% 3.3% 1.6% 98.7%


League Strength

LeagueASS 3.0 ActW% PredW% MatchupW% Batter Pitcher
Tom Kocon 0.510 0.508 0.528 0.525 0.492
Dan Stuart 0.490 0.492 0.472 0.475 0.508

Predictions

Since it is already the beginning of Week 6, I decided to give next week's predictions based on our data to date. Again, this is the probability that a team does better than a tie against their opponent. This can be done by going 6-5-0 or better. Even 3-2-6 counts as a matchup win. Let's observe:


Week Matchup Division Team MatchupW%
6 1 TK Make It Rain (TFP) 81.3%
6 1 DS La Furia Roja 18.7%
6 2 DS Joe's Torn Ligament 94.9%
6 2 DS Drunk Hot Girl Scout 5.1%
6 3 TK Dmitri Petrovich 66.6%
6 3 TK Winston Wolfe 33.4%
6 4 TK The Master Baker 60.0%
6 4 DS Enter Sandman 40.0%
6 5 TK Sexual Napalm 64.5%
6 5 DS Maewyn Succat 35.5%


And lastly (but not least ... ly) we have MEDIA!

What's a WIR without Unnecessary Censorship?



Also, if you haven't seen the Legendary Performance of Rojo Johnson, I suggest you do so:





Until next week everyone, best of luck to all finals takers.

 

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