Sorry for the delay gentlemen, but I'm pretty sure most of you aren't even reading these anymore anyways and have checked out Tmac style. Alas, it is the match of the top two titans of the league this year for the right to declare themselves masters of all things fantasy football. I'm obviously writing this after three players have already played, so Jack has an eleven point lead. Seeing as it's already Sunday, I will post a summary of what I think about the matchup, and then sometime during the week I will post a whole slew of media for all of you who actually still look at this. So here goes...
1. As Jack has already said, I would not be in the position I am if I had been foolish enough to actually draft Felix Jones. Ray Rice has been a top 5 back for me, which is huge considering my keeper back Matt Forte has been a ghost the whole year. Pittsburgh's D has been a little suspect this year, and seeing as Rice had 7 points last time, I'm hoping for a little bit more this week. The way I see it though, Jack definitely has the advantage in running backs with LT and MJD. With that said, New England has only given up three rushing TD's on the year, so I have that to comfort me at least a little.
2. The big trade for Drew Brees has paid off for me tremendously, and Aaron Rodgers has been particularly solid for Jack as well. I would say the trade has paid off for both sides very well, as Vincent Jackson has become a tremendous receiver this year, LT has somehow regained what he was before he turned 30, and Brandon Marshall and Ray Rice have been very solid as well. Dwayne Bowe was the only bust, but it was tough to see a suspension coming. Either way, in the QB department, I'd say it's a toss up. With Brees playing the Bucs and Rodgers paying the lowly Seahawks, a ton of points will be scored, but I give the edge to Brees because he'll be in warm weather.
3. It's a little easier to talk about the receivers, seeing as Jackson has already played. The other Jackson on Jack(son)'s team is going up against one of the stud corners in the league, Champ Bailey, so I'm hoping he doesn't go off like he did last week. Brandon Marshall has been pretty productive, and as of right now, I think I'm going to stick with Robert Meachem as my number 2 and keep Steve Smith on the bench. With receivers it's pretty much hit or miss, so I think whoever's receivers go off today will be the champion of the league.
4. As far as the other positions go, Jack has the edge at tight end, but Witten is going up against a decent Redskins defense, albeit they just got shellacked versus the Giants last Monday. My kicker has obviously already gone and despite his team scoring 42 points, he only got six of them. So I will give the edge to Jack in that one as well, but kickers are more or less a coin flip. Jack made the slick move of picking up the Niners because of their matchup with the Lowly Lions. I'm hoping Drew Stanton becomes Tom Brady and has a huge day today, but I like my Saints matchup with the Bucs also.
So there's my take on the 'Ship today. Either way it has been a great season this year, and I look forward to some kind of monetary reward win or lose. Also Jack for the last time, we never put any money on baseball, so you have no money coming for that. I will collect the money for football, so for all of you reading this, the next time you see me I need twenty bucks from you. Enjoy break fellas, I'll post some clips later in the week.
And then there were two. It's all eyes on Deep Throw It and Primus Inter Pares this week after the two have chugged through the regular season and playoffs to get to the final game. For all you gambling types out there, here are my final odds for the championship game:
I've got the slight edge in this matchup if we go by past performance. There's a lot of variables that Dave may give his take on that could affect this single week, (Jones-Drew plays the Patriots in blizzard country, both of my DEF's play solid teams, Brees plays the Bucs ... ) so I can't quite equate how this week will play out. This is just a good baseline to start with. Dave, I know people can vote on our matchup page on who they think will win, but maybe put one up at the top, seeing as how more people might view our blog than matchup page. Just a thought.
But it should be an exciting week nonetheless (although I may be a bit biased). What's also funny is how there has been a lot leading up to this.
-Dave and myself started the year off with a blockbuster trade; LT for Brees and a swap of picks in the 2nd and 4th rounds.
-Dave received 90 extra fantasy points this year because of his inattentiveness by trying to tell me to select Felix Jones for him with only 5 seconds left on the clock, giving him the top guy on my queue, Ray Rice. It's funny how that worked out.
-Dave and I are the leading blog writers for the league.
-Dave and I were the regular season #1 and #2.
-There was that whole midseason uprising that we all were a part of. This championship game could be seen as Pro-Fractional Points vs Anti-Fractional Points, Communism vs Democracy (Spanishness vs Catalanism), Private vs Public, Blake Lively vs Kylie Bisutti (There's my pick. The only downfall is that she's married. However, weddings bring wedding pictures).
So cheer accordingly, everyone, because a lot more is at stake than you may think.
MEDIA!
Only one for ya'll this week. But I bring you one of my favorite television segments, Unnecessary Censorship:
I'm sure I'll be chatting on the message boards this week. For those of you who don't know. I will be leaving for Trinidad and Tobago next Monday. So I plan to celebrate my Armchair Championship on the beach, blowing money that I will (hope to) receive soon after I return. (Along with my Armchair Baseball 2009 money).
Until next time.
Well hey there Armchair participants and fans. Thanks for checking back in.
We had a few less games last week than usual, but they still brought about some interesting caveats. Firstly, the mighty have fallen. The era of The Renaissance has ended and they have crossed over into the Dark Ages. It really is a bit of a shame that they're gone, since they did outscore both teams in the other matchup. Nonetheless, they still get the 5th pick in the draft next despite having the best team this year already.
The other eliminated playoff team was quite disappointing in their own right, having only put up 28 points. Those types of numbers aren't going to cut it in the postseason. Even though they were the #4 seed, the Bulldogs can't quite chalk this season up as a success. They don't have a strong team (only TEAM RIHANNA had a worse Proj@%), they did not win any money, and they aren't going to get any help for next year by having the 6th slot in the draft.
Alas, we arrive at the Final Four. Three out of the four teams here even get money, so the competition gets a little higher. Let's take a look at the postseason odds based soley on individual matchups:
And the Postseason Odds based on ProjW%:
The far right column on both tables is the change in percentage of winning the championship from last week to this week. Again, the two aren't that different, and the only reason I've included both is because I haven't decided which one is more "correct".
As we can see, Primus Inter Pares is still the odds on favorite to win it all, but he didn't receive as much help as everyone else did when Joe's team went down. Deep Throw It sure received an early Christmas present from the Moops for putting up enough points to knock Joe out of playoff contention. Dave's and Andy's road the the championship got just got a bit easier.
Speaking of road to the championship, I'm going to throw out another suggestion for our league. Perhaps we could install a traveling trophy, or a championship belt, to the winner of the playoffs. Something else to consider.
Anyway, that's basically all of math I can lay on all of you for this week. We've got the championship preview next week. Oh and we've also got ...
MEDIA!
Let's take a look at a few outtakes from Bill Dance's outdoor show:
And seeing as how it's cold outside, let's take a look at this Miller Lite commercial:
Until next week, gentlemen, so long.
Well it's playoff time kiddies. You've come this far to seed yourselves, now it's time to play some more important games (excluding the bottom 4, sorry). I think we had quite an eventful season, with quite an exciting finish over final playoff spots. I'm still baffled how Tom got the #4 seed. Let's take a look at the standings:
As we can see, not much has changed over these final few weeks in terms of our overall Projected standings. In order to summarize this season's results, let's look at some awards:
Best Team ... The Renaissance
He started off very hot (almost immortal), but took a hit with that inconceivable 6-game losing streak. However, the numbers here showed us that it was a fluke and that, over the course of the season, this team consistently put up high numbers. Though, they placed 2nd in terms of overall points scored.
Worst Team ... TEAM RIHANNA
They were so close to avoiding this award until Bulldogs decided to go on a tear at the end. There are numerous reasons for this award that we've probably covered multiple times, but at the very least he also placed last in the league and gets the first overall pick in next season's draft. Something to look forward to.
Luckiest Team ... Bulldogs
The team that scored 9th out of 10 in points scored winds up as the #4 seed in the playoffs. Goodness. If not for his unlikely pair of 3-game win streaks, this team would be joining TEAM RIHANNA, searching google for "2010 fantasy football mock draft". He talked quite a bit of smack during our mid to late season uprising, we'll see how the 'Dogs bark in the playoffs.
Unluckiest Team ... The Renaissance and Boston TD Party
We all have heard the sob story that is Team Renaissance. I have covered it multiple times. However, Joe was fortunate enough to make the playoffs, while his co-award winner is sitting lonely in 7th place, with no playoff hopes, chances for money, and they don't even get a top 3 pick in next year's draft. Cry your tears not for Joe, who has the highest draft slot for next year out of all the playoff teams, but cry them for the Boston TD Party, who are most definitely not TD Partying on this cold night.
Alright so last week I promised a playoff edition. After much research and many epiphanies in the middle of my most boring class (Econ), I present to you all the 2009 Postseason Odds, which I have done in two ways:
These first odds only consider head to head matchups between the teams played. For instance here are the odds that The Moops advance to the Championship (which is 24%):
This season they went 8-5-0 against the Bulldogs, good for a W% of .615. As we can see, this is their odds of beating the Bulldogs and making it out of the 1st round. To advance past the 2nd round, they must beat a) Bulldogs and b) Primus Inter Pares. So we take a) times b). We already covered vs Bulldogs, but they also went 5-8-0 against Primus Inter Pares, a .385 W%. So the odds of The Moops beating Bulldogs and Primus Inter Pares is (.615)*(.385) = .237. So therefore, the odds of them making it to the championship is roughly 24%. I did this whole table based on head to head results.
But I also did another way of calculating postseason odds, solely based on a team's ProjW%. In the first table above, it assumed that I would beat Joe's team 61.5% of the time because that's our Head to Head record if we counted every week. However, Joe's team is better overall because when I lost to Joe, I lost by a large margin. I.e. my team was less consistent than Joe's. So I calculated another set of odds based on ProjW%.
This was tough to figure out. Basically I had to ask a theoretical question: If Team A wins 40% of the time and Team B wins 30% of the time, how likely is it that Team A beats Team B? From there I resorted back to The Log5 Method which has been so good to me. So one example of how even though Head to Head this season I win 61.5% of the time against Joe, Joe now wins 52.7% of the time because he now has a better ProjW% than me.
However, mathematics jargon aside, these numbers luckily aren't too different. I've got about a 35-37% chance of taking the ship (And collecting a handsome reward). Another thing that we could look at is what kind of a "draw" each team in the playoffs got. Nate Silver does a great piece on the World Cup Draw and basically provided the template for what I do here. But I have neither the time nor the resources to figure out mathematically who benefited the most or least from these seeds. If I were to guess, I would say the bottom half of the bracket is the "group of death" seeing as how they have 3 out of the top 4 teams in terms of ProjW%, and my side has two teams with ProjW% under .500. I'd say I got a good draw.
Onward to MEDIA!
Here's Taiwan's take on the Tiger Woods incident:
And although this student isn't as entertaining as our Georgia fan from a few weeks ago, he gets an A for passion:
And I was torn about what to do regarding the "Armchair Fantasy Girl" fiasco. For one, no one has submitted an entry, save for Dave's Leggy Blonde, Blake Lively. [Luke, once you make up your mind let us know ;-) ] I pondered long and hard about whether I should come forward with a serious pick and play by Dave's rules or wait until everyone comes forward with a choice. I mean, if no one's going to come forward with a pick, then this really comes down to (another) contest between Dave and myself. So I choose to hold off on my potential selection until I see compliance from others to follow suit.
Until next week, digest those numbers folks.
Oh and by the way, you're welcome.
Well boys, along with the new blog design comes the playoffs, and the story of the season has to be Joe sneaking into the playoffs. Yes he did score the most points in our league, but still it is amazing he came back and won, and to be completely honest, as the playoffs start, I can honestly say I am not very happy that I have Joe on my side of the bracket. With that being said, I was the one who didn't start Robert Meachem and so that's why Joe is in, so you are all welcome! And now here is the week recap...
The Moops 76, Duke Football 48
In the battle of win and you're in, The Moops completely dominated. I have to say I am very surprised that Luke's team did not make the playoffs. With AP and Peyton Manning, it's hard to believe that he couldn't scrounge up more points, but that's what happens when you have absolutely no receivers on your team. Luke's got a good chance to have a good team next though, as his two keepers will most likely be a top 5 running back and a top 5 quarterback. Not sold on The Moops though, especially if Michael Turner continues to be injured.
Bulldogs 80, Boston TD Party 58
After all the Tom bashing in the past couple of weeks, his team stepped up to the plate and scored the most points for the week. Again huge weeks by his kicker and defense led the way, but also very solid weeks courtesy of Anquan Boldin and Rashard Mendenhall. Not a great week for BTDP, and the cause of that was DeAngelo Williams being out. That's the main difference in JP's team this year and last year: Williams not being near as productive as he was last year.
Team Rihanna 54, Team Chris Brown 38
The Toliet Bowl goes to the guy who was starting a QB who didn't play and a running back who scored zero also. To add insult to injury, Tony McDonald also gets the first pick in the draft because he has scored less points than Cafferty's team. To prevent some of the same things that happened this year, I have a proposal for next year to prevent people from starting injured or players on a bye week. Read more about it after the recaps.
Primus Inter Pares 55, Super Consistency 44
Riley's team had been riding on the coattails of Mr. Chris Johnson's success the past couple of weeks, so it makes sense his team doesn't win when Johnson didn't go off this week against the Colts. Jack clinched the number one seed, and with that, does not have to pay his league due of 20 bucks. For all those that have forgotten, 50% goes to the winner of the playoffs, 30% to 2nd, 10% to third place, and 10% for the regular season winner. When we do meet for our little rules meeting over winter break, everyone's got to bring their 20 dollars. Consider this your warning.
The Renaissance 46, Deep Throw It 44
All I have to say is I wish I started Robert Meachem.
COMMISSIONER NEWS
OK so as I had said previously, it's come to my attention that there's been too many times that there have been bye week or injured players in the lineup this year. In order to solve this, I want to propose something: I think that we should have a fine for every bye week or injured player playing during a week. With a roster limit of 14 players, I think it is unreasonable to think there should be any circumstance where you can't either add a player or put a bye week player on your bench. So as of right now, I think for next year the fine should be $10 per incident, and this will go towards maybe a league party fund during the summer, or maybe towards our draft, in which case all of us (minus Tom) will be of the legal alcohol age, and so the fine money can go towards buying beer for the draft? What are your guy's thoughts? After our Armchair Fantasy Girl election, I will put this as the poll for the blog and there will be a week to vote on whether or not this fine should be instituted.
As for the Armchair Fantasy Girl, I was pretty disappointed at the amount of league participation. It's pretty hypocritical of all of you to criticize me when you want me to speak up, but when I call upon the league there is only one actual candidate (whoever Jack picks) that will come forth. Funny how these things work. Well I guess it'll be Jack's candidate versus mine, which seems pretty fitting seeing as we're about the only ones who are consistent posters on the message board. But I digress, to my candidate.......(drum roll)...............
BLAKE LIVELY
I awaited your choice, Jack, with the utmost anticipation.
With playoffs just around the corner, it's crunch time. Last week saw the hopes of teams continue, the wrapping up of playoff spots, and some seasons come to and end (although I don't know if that team's owner knows it). I hope everyone's Thanksgiving breaks were enjoyable, and that the sprint to the finish that is finals goes as smooth as could be. Now, onto the recap...
The Renaissance 89, Team Rihanna 41
Joe's team performed at its highest level when it counted, but I have to say, I'm hoping it doesn't go as smoothly for him this week, as I would love that regular season number one, because if I do recall, #1 in regular season does get their money back. (yes I said money). P.S. It looks Tmac has reverted back to baseball form, so it's nice to see he has Jason Elam still on his team.
Deep Throw It 75, Duke Football 41
Well this one looked close going into Monday night, but then the Saints do what they do, and it was all over. Luke's team is still very dangerous if they make the playoffs, as they have the best QB and one of the best RB's in the league. I just happened to have a little luck that both did not go off this week.
Primus Inter Pares 72, Boston TD Party 50
Jack's team puts in another solid week, as the predraft trade he and I made has helped out both parties quite well. As the Patriots go, JP's team goes it seems, although it does hurt when your number one runner only gets ya two points.
Super Consistency 63, The Moops 41
This comes and no big surprise. If a team you are playing is starting Jason Snelling, you should win by no less than 20 points. Especially when you have the best running back in the league on your team. Yes, I said it, Chris Johnson is better than Adrian Peterson.
Bulldogs 62, Team Chris Brown 44
Although Tom may have ruffled some feathers this past week, his team performed relatively well for once. That'll happen when your kicker and defense lead your team in scoring. As much as I benefited from the Who Dat? Saints, Caff was hurt when his stud receivers only managed four points.
Now to address Jack's request for (MORE) rules changes. Let me first start by saying, I am perfectly fine with talking about changes to our league's rules, and am more than happy to meet up over winter break to figure things out once and for all. But to suggest that just because the team who scored the most points in our league is not in first place, and the team who scored the least points may make the playoffs, we have to find some way to make it so that that can't happen is pretty absurd. As Luke has said, that's part of what sports is all about, ESPECIALLY fantasy sports. Sometimes, the best team doesn't always win. That's just how it works, and to try to change this would completely undermine what sports are all about. I completely acknowledge your thirst for some way to completely eradicate luck from the equation Jack, but as LT said, what would be the point of even paying attention anymore?
(Double) Hot Clicks of the Week
It's one of the most anticipated nights in all of TV, so how could I not start off with a certain fashion show?
With the fashion show aside, I got to thinking. What if we anointed an Official Armchair Fantasy Girl for our blog? Now I'm not proposing turning this blog into all about big boobs and nice asses, but I think we should have a little competition of sorts? Here's what I propose, each guy nominates a particular female they find attractive, and we all cast votes. We narrow it down to five semifinalists, then three finalists, and then announce the winner the week of the championship? So by next week, I hope all of you nominate your favorite female, and see if we can make this happen. The more under the radar the better.
If this doesn't get you jacked up, nothing will.
Check out the Sports Fan's Bucket List. I might make it my life's personal goal to see everyone of these.
The usual crowd prank at half time of basketball game, but I think the best part is the guy goes and taunts Reggie Miller.
I think Chris Fowler and his gang just love finding people to make fun of at their games. Although this kind completely fails so it's pretty funny.
As much as I like Tiger Woods, I have to put in something about his wife kicking his ass. 
Props to Kevin Love on his new girlfriend.
This is pretty scary, and downright idiotic
Alright well I think that will be enough to tide most of you over, but just in case, here are two songs of the week: Ain't No Reason by Brett Dennen and 40 Day Dream by Edward Sharpe and the Magnetic Zeroes
Joe's still in first. Joe's still the most unlucky. We do have a recent development though. The Bulldogs are now by far the most lucky team this year. They're two wins ahead of where they should be. And as we know this season, two wins is more than the difference between a playoff entry or the consolation bracket.
Again, I'm a little concerned about this. Joe's team has been the best this year and very well may miss the playoffs. Tom has been the worst team this year and is in 4th place. I'm just glad I'm not on the receiving end of any bad luck. Do rule changes need to be in order to fix this for upcoming years? Maybe a change in point values? I don't know. Maybe it's just something to consider.
Let's look at the last regular season matchups of this year:
Primus Inter Pares has gone 6-4-2 vs Super Consistency
Boston TD Party has gone 8-4-0 vs Bulldogs
The Moops have gone 6-4-2 vs Duke Football
TEAM CHRIS BROWN has gone 7-5-0 vs TEAM RIHANNA
The Renaissance has gone 8-4-0 vs Deep Throw It
Now let's look at the possible outcomes for the week, in order of the league standings:
Primus Inter Pares - Playoff bound. There's only one outcome that will strip me of the #1 seed and that's if I lose and Dave wins. Chances of that? Roughly 11.1%
Deep Throw It - Playoff bound. Should get a first round bye UNLESS he loses and Super Consistency wins, AND Super Consistency scores 46 more points than him. Chances = Very slim since the most Super Consistency has outscored Dave in any week was by 26 in Week 9.
Super Consistency - Playoff bound.
Bulldogs - He's in with a win for sure. And if he loses, the only way he wouldn't make the playoffs is if Boston TD Party, The Moops, and Duke Football all win. HOWEVER, since the Moops play Duke Football, only one team can win. If they tie that game and Tom loses, then they'd all have the same W%, and the team with the most points this year would advance ... Therefore Tom would be on the outside looking in.
Boston TD Party - In with a win. If he loses, he can still get in if The Renaissance and TEAM CHRIS BROWN don't win OR The Moops/Duke Football do not tie.
The Moops/Duke Football - Winner is in. If they tie, they're only both in if Joe and Mike lose. If they tie and Joe or Mike win, the team with more points would move on, unless Joe and Mike both won, then they'd both be on the outside..
The Renaissance/TEAM CHRIS BROWN - Chance of getting in. If either team wins, that team would need two teams out of Boston TD Party, The Moops, and Duke Football to lose. though, if they both won and were eligible for that 6th spot, it would go to whomever has more points, most likely The Renaissance pending a rout.
TEAM RIHANNA - Consolation Bracket. And start thinking about your #1 pick next year.
Wow. My head's spinning. There's probably more outcomes, but either way, let's just see what happens.
I'll leave the MEDIA to Dave since he needs to win back our favour.
But it was a good regular season. I hope I've shed some light on the role of luck in our fantasy football league. Next week means playoff edition.
Until then. May the fantsy football gods be with you.
Week 11 down, with only 2 more weeks left in the regular season. Only 1 team is guaranteed a playoff spot at this point. And I haven't really done the math, nor looked in depth at the remaining schedule, but I can't quite tell or not if any team is technically "eliminated" from playoff contention. But nonetheless, there will be a lot of action here in these past two weeks. Let's look at the season stats:
Joe still has found a way to stay in first place in our projected league standings. He's 3rd in the league in terms of points scored, but seems to have put up good points on a more consistent basis. But we've covered this issue in far too much detail in the past. You all can look at the table and come up with the proper conclusions.
Primus Inter Pares and Deep Throw It are duking it out for the Armchair regular season title. (BTW, will the winner of the regular season be receiving any monetary awards?) Dave and I are both about a win ahead of where we should be, which isn't overly lucky, but nonetheless it's helping us separate ourselves from the pack.
The Bulldogs, who are even worse than TEAM RIHANNA in my standings, are the most lucky team in the league. This could be a monumental event where the team that SHOULD be in 1st place won't make the playoffs, while the team that SHOULD be in last place makes the playoffs.
With that said, what are our thoughts on this? It's clear as day just how much luck plays a role in winning a fantasy football league. More specifically, how much scheduling plays a part. Are we upset about this? I can see where fantasy managers that pay more attention would be upset about it and more casual managers would be amused by this. Maybe that's why so many people love fantasy football. They don't need to pay much attention to it, and can still (perhaps) win their league. As a longtime fantasy manager, this is a large reason why I am not as much of a fan of fantasy football as I am about other fantasy sports. I can try my hardest and I could be much better than my fantasy counterparts, but I still have a good chance of losing. It's frustrating, especially if it's a serious league with money on the line. If it's all for fun and games, then I can understand why it's so enjoyable. Every manager can tell a pity story to a friend or a co-worker about how he got screwed the week before. Don't get me wrong though, my autumn would be dull without fantasy football, and it has it's own distinctness that I treasure.
Ok back to the numbers. Let's look at which teams are peaking at the right time. Numbers from the past 3 weeks:
The Moops are coming in hot. They may be the team that emerges from that middle pack.
Also, Duke Football are not helping their cause and have lost some steam as we approach playoff runs.
Let's look to the future then. Based on the season's numbers, where can we expect people to end up?
1) Primus Inter Pares - 8.7 Projected Points
2) Deep Throw It - 8.1
3) Super Consistency - 7.1
4) Boston TD Party - 6.6
5) The Moops - 6.5
6) Duke Football 6.4
On the Bubble:
TEAM CHRIS BROWN - 6.0
And let's look at next weeks matchups:
Primus Inter Pares has gone 5-4-2 vs Boston TD Party
Super Consistency has gone 6-5-0 vs The Moops
TEAM CHRIS BROWN has gone 9-2-0 vs Bulldogs
The Renaissance has gone 7-4-0 vs TEAM RIHANNA
Deep Throw It has gone 7-4-0 vs Duke Football
MEDIAAA
Dude can hit.
And as for this gem, continue watching even when you think you can't. Even when you think it's all done, it is not. WARNING: I would recommend not watching this before a meal.
That's all for this week. I wish you all a very Happy Armchair Thanksgiving. And enjoy your NFL tripleheader on Thursday!
P.S. League members, what are our thoughts on Tom's post? I would hope those sort of comments merit a wrist-slap of sorts.
Well now that all parties have been heard from, except for Tmac of course, for which all hope has been lost. The only things I will say in regards to my State of the League post is that Jack, I'm mildy surprised at home tame you were in your reply. I definitely thought I would get the caliber of backlash from you like I got from Mike. Also, I agree with Jack that we should meet over winter break to create league by-laws. Toni Olson may be willing to host it, so that way we can have the customary meatballs, chicken wings, and chips and salsa that are a staple when guests are at the Olson's. There will be no changing of any scoring settings during the season, as that could affect our standings with the ties we have already.
Some questions have also been asked by members about tiebreakers in the playoffs. Now, I have spent about a half hour trying to find out how Yahoo! decides these ties, and have yet to find anything the explicitly says anything about playoff ties. So this is what I came up with, and it's just an idea, but it's something concrete we can go off of for the playoffs. Although I don't have the ability to set the tiebreaker setting, I do have the ability to alter team's points scored for a given week. With that in mind, I think, at least for these playoffs, that each team designates two "tiebreaker" players on their bench. These two players will be used to break ties. If two teams are tied, then whoever has scored more points among the teams' designated "#1 tiebreaker" wins, and I will adjust the score so that team wins. If it's still tied after the first tiebreaker, then it moves to the "#2 tiebreaker". If it's still tied after that, I say we flip a coin because who knows what to do after that? I know it's not ideal, but it's just an idea and it would solve the problem for this year at the least. Let me know what you all think.
Now onto the recap...probably going to be a little on the short side but I am going to add a predictions segment for the hell of it.
Deep Throw It 74 Bulldogs 33
What a world of difference it makes when your receivers actually do something. Doesn't hurt when the team your playing only has one player who scores over 5 points.
Duke Football 57 Team Rihanna 20
Well I thought football was going to be different, but Tony McDonald has officially checked out fellas. Three guys in your starting lineup on a bye? Really Tmac?!? Meanwhile Luke's win was hardly the highlight of his week, considering he now owns the best running back and best quarterback in fantasy (and real) football, courtesy of Michelangelo.
The Moops 63 Team Chris Brown 54
Despite a big week from Randy Moss, Caff couldn't take down a relatively consistent team effort from The Moops. Sidney Rice might have been the best draft pick this year, despite the fact that Schneider dropped him earlier in the year.
Primus Inter Pares 75 The Renaissance 69
All I have to say is Joe, stop your whining, your abroad while we're all stuck here. You have had enough dominance of our leagues that it's time for an off year
Boston TD Party 63 Super Consistency 58
Thank you Cleveland Browns, for being a completely inept offense, and handing me sole possession of 2nd place.
Now time for me to try out my hand at predicting the future.
Here are Da Commish's Picks of the Week
Deep Throw It over Rihanna (Hard not to after I already have a 33 point lead)
Boston TD Party over The Moops
Super Consistency over Duke Football
Team Chris Brown over Primus Inter Pares (I can hope can't I?)
Bulldogs over La Renaissance
Here's the Hot Clicks of the Week
You would have thought this was an SEC football game...absolutely terrible call
Nothing been class here. Would expect nothing less from a Badgers fan.
Nothing but pure vengeance here
Not a bad week for Zach Greinke. A Cy Young and he is marrying this.
If only every coach answered questions as truthfully as Charlie Coles, head coach at Miami of Ohio.
Well I think that should tide everyone over, so here's a song of the week to wrap it up. Just because of the new album, here's Who Says by John Mayer
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FZwVjys2bQI
I am not going to try not to include the responses of others, however similar or dissimilar they may be. Starting from the top of his post, I took out the pieces I would like to address and put my comments below. Onward we go.
Jack gave me "a week or two", so I'm still within his timeline, and have not been ignoring him, just formulating my thoughts.
It would have been good to know that you weren’t ignoring us. Even after we accused you of ignoring us, you still said nothing. Also, it’s not good to bottle up everything and explode it onto one post. There are a lot of sub-issues that are going to take some discussion and if we were to begin to cover them when they arose, this process would have been much less messy to deal with. Just take it as a note.
1. Stopped doing weekly reviews.
I fully acknowledge I have not done the week in reviews in many weeks. I do want to say however, that since when has this become a duty of the commissioner? This has always been Jack's thing that he does, and this summer I decided to try my hand at it since I was bored.
If we wish “to go there”, I do recall that these reviews started with you (and you obliged to continue every so often, by my requests). You did them off and on for awhile, and I liked the idea so much I tried my hand at it, albeit more regularly. Then this past summer it seemed to me that you were a regular contributor, which also carried over to this fall. It’s most certainly not the duty of the commissioner (Joe/Luke never did weekly recaps, and I’ve never been commissioner).
HOWEVER, as the commissioner, the members like to know that you’ve got control of things and are involved in the league. When you stopped doing weekly reviews, we could have figured maybe your desire for this league left you. Heck, T-Mac could have been the commissioner those 5 or so weeks before your State of the League, and the only difference would have been that you updated your team and he didn’t. And we also figured if you’re going to check your team, why not write some responses or at least say you need time, but will eventually respond to us.
But our curiosity about why you hadn’t written for the majority of this year could almost be taken as a compliment rather than negativity. We ENJOY having your recaps around and we WANT you to write them. We’re all busy in college, so we know this. And it’s not as if anyone’s going to be at another’s throat if a weekly blog gets published on a Thursday or something. Heck, this past summer I stopped doing it entirely after a certain point because I couldn’t get ASS 2.0 to work. But I was still active on the message boards and told people why I was done.
2. Not answering the questions in the reviews.
Here is my answer finally. And half the time, they're not questions. They're just constant insults directed towards me.
The only questions that I have seen on the message board or posted on the blog regarded the lack of a response to the following questions:
1) Fantasy baseball money (Me, Back on Oct 5)
2) Your opposition to fractional points (Me, Sept 29)
3) Why you haven’t been writing (Mike, Oct 21)
3. Mishandling of money.
It would be virtually impossible to collect league fees when we don't all meet at one time, especially when people were leaving so early, and in some cases going abroad. I recognize I still owe money to some members, and I will make sure to get that money to them.
I understand the difficulty of collecting money when we’re not around (Plus, no one likes to be that guy that asks for money). I also understand the difficulty of money distribution when people aren’t around. But are you aware of who still needs to receive what? Or who needs to pay what? Do you have a piece of paper with a distribution list on it or an excel file? Could you tell me how much the wagers were for our past 3 Armchair seasons? Do we need an Armchair accountant?
Some of the above questions were rhetorical, so if you are going to provide a response to this post, don’t answer all of them individually. But they are things to consider. Things are going to get a little uneasy if you say “yeah I got it covered” without anything more.
4. "Un-Goodell like" ruling
This really doesn’t concern me. Though, it would be nice to know what the rules state. No cursing? What constitutes a curse word? No attack other peoples mothers? (Or is just Joba Chamberlain’s mother fair game?) Also, what kind of penalties do we have in place? Should we sign something at the beginning of each season? Again, they’re just rhetorical questions that we can consider.
5. The Request of a New Commissioner
Joe was the commissioner for baseball two years ago, and although there were no speedbumps, it had to be one of the most boring season of all our fantasy leagues. There was no interaction with the commissioner, no week recaps, no debates over what stats should and shouldn't be included, etc.
Dave, if you are referring to the 2008 baseball season when Joe was the commissioner, we had 114 message posts compared to 156 from the 2009 season. On the message board list here, from the 2008 season, it seems to me that Joe was an active participant on there, contradicting your claim that there was a lack of interaction with him. Also, that was the year I did the weekly RPI recaps from Week 1, so the weekly recaps were also very present. And you claim there weren’t any debates about what stats to include/exclude, but wouldn’t that mean that we were content for the most part with which ones were in place? I personally enjoyed this season particularly, because I won both regular season and playoffs.
Luke had attempted to organize a fantasy basketball league if I am not mistaken, and that had not gone so well.
I also enjoyed this league, and not just because I was in the championship. It’s a bit less demanding than baseball, but more than football (And a bit less luck involved). I’d be game for a hockey or basketball or premier league winter fantasy league if anyone wishes. You name it, I’ll play it.
Jack is the only candidate who has yet to have the post, but if i had to guess I don't think he would enjoy it as much, because he would not have a higher power to constantly gripe about and argue with.
Let’s not put words in other people’s mouths. Just because Mike proposed three candidates, doesn’t mean you need to put up (untrue) criticism toward each of them. Though, you have a great skill-set to be a politician …
Now onto Mr. Ries's litany of inquiries:
About these 6 or so stances I laid out, they weren’t necessarily a compilation of everything you were doing wrong they were just a bunch of satirical hot button issues if we were to hold upcoming elections (Which was also a satirical proposal). There were only a few things that I had inquired about to you personally, which were on that list. But there were also things on that list that didn’t pertain to things you did that I did not dislike.
For these next stances, I’m not going to comment on them all. For the most part, the following things in my opinion should be decided by a) Discussion or perhaps voting by league members and then b) Action by the commissioner. Just my opinion.
1. Which stats to incorporate in non-Football (meaning baseball) leagues:
2. How much each football stat is worth (leaving the big one until the end)
3. How to order the draft and keeper leagues
In the future, I would like to expand to three or possibly four keepers, as it brings more strategy into play when making trades both in and out of season.
4. Stance on which managers to allow in/out of leagues.
5. Health Care (I mean fractional points)
Who knew this would be such a controversial topic. Before I address my objections for fractional points, I do want to state the fact that I did allow a vote on this premise for this season, not enough votes were cast, and thus it was not allowed. I refuse to change things when we don't get at least 8 votes cast out of the 10 members of the league. I don't think that's too much to ask. Now, my objections to fractional points are as follows:
I guess that’s your own opinion about how many votes need to be cast. But what about if 7/7 people don’t like an idea, hypothetically? It can’t pass legislature? Or how about we wait until everyone can vote? Via texting, calling, etc.
a) It ruins part of the fun-Part of the fun of fantasy football is sitting there watching a game and yelling and screaming for your running back to get five more yards so you get that one extra point. Fractional points completely ruin this aspect of fantasy football (which I believe is why fantasy football is so addicting).
To paraphrase Step Brothers:
“[I] literally have never done any of those things.”
Am I less enthusiastic about fantasy football than the next guy because I’ve never yelled for a guy to get 5 more yards to round out a fantasy point? Fantasy football would still be addicting if fractional points were implemented. That, you cannot refute. If they ruined fun, why do many leagues use them?
b) It ruins the ease of scoring- I enjoy being able to hear a guy's stats and being able to calculate his fantasy score on the spot. If someone has 92 yards rushing, I like being able to know he scored 4 points, not 4.6 points and trying to integrate that into my team's points for the week.
I just use my computer, where we have free stat updates. Maybe this will help you brush up on your math skills. But also you can make a very educated guess knowing that if a guy has 92 yards rushing, he has at least 4 points plus 12/20 of a point. Especially if we keep 20 as a denominator we just say every additional yard is .5 of a point. I mean yes, it is additional work if you’re ever stranded without a computer and simply cannot wait to know a player’s score. But other than that, it’s all taken care of on Yahoo!
c) There are not fractional points in any other league-you don't get half a run if a guy reaches second base, or gets two thirds of a strikeout anytime a pitcher gets two strikes on a batter.
Fantasy football is different. No other fantasy sport is like football. Other leagues we have category wins. Football, we do not. You’re almost comparing apples to oranges. One could argue that for how many categories we have in other sports, a player is being assessed by an assortment of things he does. If a guy steals a base, it counts. If a guy gets an additional RBI, it counts. So here, if a RB gets an extra 15 yards, I think it should always count.
d) Ties are a part of football- The NFL has ties, and since fantasy football is supposed to (somewhat) imitate real-life football, why can't there be ties in our league? If there were someway to pick two players from your bench as tiebreakers, I would be all for that method, but Yahoo! doesn't allow for that. Fact is, ties happen, and it's part of sports.
Yes, the NFL has ties. Where you’re wrong is that Fractional points also allow for ties. And if we want fantasy to imitate the NFL, we need to cut back on the number of ties we’ve had this season. There have been a total of 17 NFL ties since 1974. (it even has its own Wikipedia page)
Let’s just consider the seasons 2002-2008 (the last year of new franchises up until last season). So there have been 32 teams * 16 games per team / 2 teams per game * 7 full seasons = 1792 regular season games. Over that time there were 2 ties. 2/1792 = 0.1% of all games that end in a tie. For our league, we’ve had (through week 10) three total tie games. We’ve also had 10 teams * 10 games per team / 2 teams per game = 50 games. 3/50 = 6.0% of all games that end in a tie. We’ve played 97% less games than they have, yet have had 50% more ties. Hardly imitators of the NFL.
e) We have already voted on it as a league- As I have already stated earlier in this column, we voted on it as a league, and not enough votes were cast. It's funny I get tarred and feathered for a taking a couple of weeks off of participating in this league, yet we couldn't even get 80% of our members to vote on something that some think is so crucial it needs to dethrone the leadership of the league. What is this, the French Revolution?
Just for a reference, when was this vote? I’m not saying it never happened. But I vaguely recall it.
Anyway, that’s all I have to say for now. This took for too long to cover. Dave, the biggest favor you could do right now is to not sulk or say something like “Fine since you all have so many problems I’ll just give up and you guys can do whatever you want” or something along those lines. I’m not saying that’s what you’ll do or would have done necessarily, but you ARE the commissioner of this league right now. You also clearly wanted to have that title. So, in conclusion, listen to your members when necessary and state true, clear facts always about why you feel the way you feel. I’m all for listening to your reasons for not wanting fractional points. Hey, it might help everyone to hear both sides of this debate if we were to vote on this again. I’m not saying you’re not fit to have your role, but you’ve made statements that I hold different stances on and I’ve laid them out above. Haha maybe we should have a roundtable meeting over Xmas or Turkey break to straighten anything out since it’s tough via message board. But what do I know? You’re Da Commish.
‘I see great things in [the Armchair League], It will [keep] our people [in]doors, fill them with oxygen , give them a larger physical stoicism, tend to relieve us from being a nervous, dyspeptic set, repair those losses and be a blessing to us.”
-Walt Whitman … mostly
With only three weeks to go, no team is safe to make the playoffs (except one). Even the teams intertwined in the 4-way tie for last place all have a legitimate chance at the playoffs. It's going to be an exciting couple of remaining weeks to see who fills out where. On to the season's cumulative numbers:
Strangely, (sadly?) Joe is still both in first place and the most unlucky. He had the 3rd best score from this past week and happened to be playing the team with the best score. It's quite a spectacle to watch this. Is it possible that he could get so unlucky that he would miss the playoffs? That would show just how lucky Fantasy Football is. We know baseball's grueling season has enough outcomes to put teams closer to where they should be. I've argued that I enjoy those longer seasoned sports because luck is less involved (though it's still there). But it would be a monumental occurrence if Joe's team does not place in the top 6, even though he'd most likely be in 1st place if we had a different schedule. Joe is there some bad karma you're now on the receiving end of? He should have almost 3 wins more at this point ...
Joe has the fewest wins in the league for pete's sake! AND he is on a 5 game losing streak! He should have won 48.8% of his games over that time, instead it's 0. That's a swing of 2.4 wins alone. You're lucky I'm here to show the world how unlucky you've been, otherwise we'd be laughing at you for having the least wins in the league.
My boys in 2nd place are still creeping up on Joe (or is it that Joe's numbers are descending toward mine?) and I'm trying to justify my 1st place in the league by having the best ProjW%. I am still the most lucky team, though I've been improving that number by putting up back-to-back-to-back best scores of the week.
Boston TD Party and Super Consistency are forces to be reckoned with in these upcoming weeks and come playoff time. They've got good numbers either way you look at it.
Deep Throw It has quietly sneaked into 2nd place, despite his projected rank of 5th in the league. His luck came from those first few weeks, but other than that, his W-L-T is consistent with where he should be.
As for the projected seeds, losses by Super Consistency, The Renaissance, and TEAM CHRIS BROWN sure hurt their chances. Here's what I've got:
1) Primus Inter Pares - 9.4 Projected Pts
2) Deep Throw It - 7.5
3) Boston TD Party - 7.3
4) Duke Football - 7.0
5) Super Consistency - 6.6
and this last spot is quite the toss-up
6a) The Renaissance - 5.98
6b) The Moops - 5.95
Should be fun to watch.
Let's look at the matchups for this upcoming week based on how each team would have fared had they only played their Week 11 opponent the whole year:
Primus Inter Pares has gone 6-4-0 vs TEAM CHRIS BROWN in these last 10 weeks. Not as safe a bet as I would have hoped.
Boston TD Party has gone 5-4-1 against The Moops this year.
Super Consistency has also gone 6-4-0 against Duke Football
This might be the safe bet of the week. The Renaissance has gone 8-2-0 against the Bulldogs this year. It's funny because as I have said a) They are both tied for last place and b) The Bulldogs have more wins than The Renaissance
Deep Throw it has gone 7-3-0 against TEAM RIHANNA. Seeing as how TMac doesn't care to check his team much anymore, I'd expect this to be more than a 70% chance of a win for Dave.
Well there you have it. I've crunched the numbers of the past, and used those numbers to help guide us toward being more informative about what can happen in the future.
MEDIA
Here's a trippy video about Dock Ellis's no-hitter in 1970, whilst under the influence of LSD. Here's a prologue for ya'll to get up to speed.
And then we've got this nutjob from Georgia. I don't know if he was under the influence of something, or he just never wanted to leave character. You decide:
Take care kids. Turkey day's coming up soon. It's going to be a much needed break for us all. And what our thoughts on the Twins' new unis?
Sorry for the delay people. I had a presentation Tuesday and a Math test Wednesday to deal with. So now I'm back.
Clearly, there's been a lot going on around the league. I will not cover any external issues in this post, but hopefully at some point I'll get around to it. It will probably be something along the format of Mike's post since The State of the League was a large document and I may have hangups about specific parts of it.
But let's also welcome Dave back to our league after his haitus. It's good to know there's still a captain driving the ship that is our league. (Even if the crew seems uneasy about it).
Alas, I'm getting ahead of myself. On to the numbers!
It's evident that the Greek gods are on the decline. Their ProjW% has fallen almost week by week except for a few exceptions, but their league ranking is even worse. Based on their past numbers, they should be in 1st place. However, they sit on top of a 4-way tie for 6th place. Yes, they've been the most unlucky team this year. They should have won almost 2 more games in these past 9 weeks. I guess that's why we play the game.
Boston TD Party has quietly turned into an elite fantasy football squad. Their 2nd place ProjW% ranking and 4th place league ranking almost assure these guys a playoff spot. They also happen to be the 2nd most unlucky team behind Greek gods.
Primus Inter Pares has been blessed. My team has surfaced themselves from the clump in the middle. Yes, we're the most lucky/overrated team. But I've put up some big points these last couple weeks to help justify my high ranking in the league.
As for the clump in the middle, our playoff format says 6 teams make the playoffs, and my numbers tell me that if your team wants a bye in the playoffs, you're going to have to secure yourself 7 points (1 pt Win, .5 pt Tie) or a .538 W%. If you want a playoff spot. You're going to have to reach the all important benchmark of 6 points (.462 W%), but perhaps more depending on how clumped we all are. Here's how my projected seeds look:
1) Primus Inter Pares 8.8 Projected final pts
2) Super Consistency 7.2
3) Deep Throw It 6.9
4) Boston TD Party 6.9
5) Greek gods 6.6
6) Duke Football 6.5
On the bubble: TEAM CHRIS BROWN 6.0
This list may change rapidly from week to week since each win is such a huge swing and we've only played 9 weeks.
Let's also take a look at how teams have fared these last 3 weeks:
Some things that stick out:
1) Greek gods should have won about 1.6, instead they won 0 when every other team had at least one win ... epically unlucky
2) Bulldogs won a game when they should have won practically 0. They had the lowest score in Weeks 7 and 8, and in Week 9 they had the second lowest behind TEAM RIHANNA. And who did they play that week? TEAM RIHANNA. They had an 88% chance of going 0-3 and they defied those odds ... lucky.
3) The Bulldogs had more wins this past week than Greek gods ... [shiver]
MEDIA
Just a precursor to the video: This song has been in my head for 4 straight days and the only reason I'm upset about that fact is because I'm scared I'll start to get sick of it and despise it. But alas, I love it. The video actually premiered Tuesday and it already has already almost 3,000,000 views. Enjoy.
Well that should do it for this week. I don't know when I'll get a response out to the public. In the meantime, I urge everyone of you to voice your opinion on these matters at hand. All of these issues concern each and everyone one of you. So make yourself heard.
Funny how I post something that so many people demanded, and there has yet to be any kind of response to it...and I'm the one who isn't involved enough in the league. Sticking to my word, here is the Week 9 Recap, Twitter-style edition. Each matchup in 140 characters or less...
Primus Inter Pares 71, Deep Throw It 45
Jack 1, Dave 0....anytime you have a guy on your bench who scores 21 points, it's a good bet you will lose that week.
Boston TD Party 71, Duke Football 47
No AP=No victory. Solid performance from everyone on JP's team minus McGahee
Super Consistency 71, Team Chris Brown 65
71 was the magic number this week...TCB is Mr. Ries's unlucky team of the week despite Kurt Warner's 25 points.
The Moops 61, Greek gods 57
How the mighty have fallen...this might be Joe's lowest standing in Armchair Fantasy sports history
Bulldogs 40, Team Rihanna 38
Might as well call this one battle of the futile ones. It's feast or famine for Tmac...gotta have WR's score in order to win.
Not going to bother with rankings this week, instead I'll leave that to our resident statistician. On to the links!!
Da Commish's Hot Clicks of the Week
If you haven't seen this kid yet, you must have been living in a hole for like a month (or you might just be in Europe).
I plan on making my kids memorize famous speeches and post them on YouTube to gain instant celebrity.
The all-important Evil Eye
Sammy Sosa's Halloween costume was Michael Jackson.
Just scary.
Here's the real reason they want health care reform...
Who said girls sports aren't high contact?
Well I think that's enough for now, so until next time here's Da Commish approved song of the week (Two of them to make up for lost time)
Yes it's Miley Cyrus, with a Lil Weezy thrown in
I know Jack will like this one....Your New Man by Mason Jennings