Armchair Thoughts

Week 3 in the books. Week 2 showed us that our team was pretty equally matched with only 2 teams without a win. Now this week, teams are starting to break out and play like they should, while some still have had some scheduling luck ...

On to the rankings:


As we can see. Joe has avoided a loss in these first three weeks (Although I'm still bitter about Week 1). On the other end, the Bulldogs can't find a win. Only TEAM RIHANNA scored more points than them this past week. But alas, the odds are they'll get a win sooner or later.

So let's look at what stands out. Well for starters, Primer Inter Pares has scored a whopping 192 points (2nd in the league by 2 points, with TEAM CHRIS BROWN in 3rd with 166) yet sits tied for 5th in the league. All things being equal, hopefully they'll see an increase in the league standings.
Also, you know I can't go a week without talking about the luck of Deep Throw It. They somehow sit tied for 2nd in the league in W% (4th if we count Pts). So let's ask what are the odds that he has put up these numbers and has escaped 2-1-0? Let's do the math.

Odds that Deep Throw It goes 2-1-0 after 3 weeks:
Possible scenarios: 1) W, W, L --- 2) W, L, W --- 3) L, W, W
Odds that Deep Throw It had a win in Week 1 based on the scores of the other teams = 4/9 = 44%
Odds of Week 1 loss = 5/9 = 55%
Odds of Week 2 win = 2/9 = 22%
Odds of Week 2 loss = 7/9 = 77%
Odds of Week 3 win = 4/9 = 44%
Odds of Week 3 loss = 5/9 = 55%

1) W, W, L = 44% * 22% * 55% = 5.5%
2) W, L, W = 44% * 77% * 44% = 15.3%
3) L, W, W = 55% * 22% * 44% = 5.5%
Total = 5.5% + 15.3% + 5.5% = 26.3%

So Deep Throw It has defied the odds by quite a bit. There was only a 26.3% chance that he'd escape these 3 weeks with exactly 2-1 record. In fact, he had a 24% chance of being 0-3-0:
55% * 77% * 55% = 24.0%

Yet he sits at 2-1-0.

Some matchups I'm keen on observing next week:

Boston TD Party vs Bulldogs
This one should be the "Toyota Biggest Fantasy Blowout".

TEAM RIHANNA vs TEAM CHRIS BROWN
The battle of the ALL CAPS teams. And there's also some history between the two.
I expect this week's matchup to end in the same results.

Deep Throw It vs Greek gods
I think I'm going to enjoy watching this one.

Chao all.

And Dave, maybe for our sake, could you tell us WHY exactly you're so against fractional points?

My, oh my, Jack, you sure didn't cut me any slack this week that's for sure. Like I already told you earlier, this reminds me of our good old locker-sharing days freshmen year when we would constantly argue about something, and race to our lockers so we could get there first. And of course, there was always Schneider standing there in the locker next to us laughing and mocking us. It seems to continue on now, somewhere reading this, Andy is probably still snickering at us. As you well pointed out, it seems my rankings did fall very similarly to you, and so my reasoning probably isn't too far off. In my rankings, I more or less ranked teams both based on what happened in the first week, but also through the history and tendency of each manager, and how they finished last year. Now, without any dominant team after the second week, I find myself with a little bit more work to do. In my rankings this week, I will do things a little differently, including taking head-to-head matchups into account. So for this week, for example, I will have to find some way to rank Super Consistency above Duke Football. This will be quite the challenge considering virtually everything I said last week went the complete opposite in week 2. So Mr. Ries, I offer you a cease-fire at the moment, and I hope our respective posts can coexist peacefully.

As far as money goes, I was planning on doing 20 dollars per person, but seeing as we didn't have the draft in person, it makes it tough to get the money. I will try to collect the money from everyone, and yes Joe, you don't need to pay me anything since you had some winnings last year.

Greek gods 67, Bulldogs 41
Instead of taking the time to praise Joe's team, which I have done plenty of in our leagues, I want to take this time to congratulate Mike Cafferty on taking down Goliath. This proves that no matter how much time you spend on your team, fantasy sports can still be a crapshoot, particularly in the playoffs. Congrats Mike...P.S. are you going to making a trek to the hallowed halls of TCF Bank Stadium in two weeks?

Team Rihanna 67, Deep Throw It 48
Of course, it only fits that my team would be destroyed by the team I mocked heavily in last week's recap. I have changed my mind about Tony Mac's team a little bit after this week's shellacking. With two of the top three WR's and one of the up-and-coming quarterbacks, Team Rihanna could be a solid force in the league. Tony could stand to benefit the most from the change this year of keeping three players instead of two. But I do still have to draw attention to the fact that Michael Crabtree is still on his team. Same old Tmac.

Super Consistency 63, Duke Football 39
The result of this matchup is further proof I have absolutely no idea of what I am doing when I comment on teams in our league. After I said last week that Team Oatmeal didn't have much depth, Chris Johnson went off for the highest point total for a single player yet. With this being said, I still am not completely sold on his team yet. I would also like to thank Luke for completely taking away any credibility I have in ranking teams by getting destroyed a week after I ranked his team #1. I should have known better to have faith in a team with Brett Favre on it.

Team Chirs Brown 61, Primus Inter Pares 49
Team Wife-Beater had a solid showing from everyone on his team besides Randy Moss, showing off the depth he has at pretty much every position. PIP had a relatively decent week, but the LT injury does concern me. I think he may be halfway down the downside of his career, and so we'll see how that trades pays off for Jack the rest of the way. Finally, for anyone interested in what Jack's new name refers to, I looked it up. In other words, here's what Wikipedia has to say.

Boston TD Party 51, The Moops 51
Alas, another tie in the ACFL! Tom Brady laid an egg against the Jets and that's what really hurt JP's team in the battle of former roommates. The lack of a second receiver for Team Seinfeld hurt the team this week, and might do so for the rest of the year.

Transaction of the Week
No significant transactions that affected this past week, and so I'll just keep trade of the one trade that has happened so far this year.

Deep Throw It through Week 2--Drew Brees 47+Ray Rice 8+Brandon Marshall 2=57 points

Primus Inter Pares through Week 2--LaDanian Tomlinson 6+Dwayne Bowe 16+Vincent Jackson 21=43 points

Numbers speak for themselves so far...

Oly's Rankings
1. Greek gods
2. The Moops
3. Team Chris Brown
4.Boston TD Party
5. Super Consistency
6. Duke Football
7. Primus Inter Pares
8. Team Rihanna
9. Deep Throw It
10. Bulldogs


Da Commish's Hot Clicks of the Week

I wish I had this athletic ability...

How'd he get up there?


May I introduce you all to the postgame tailgate....make sure you listen at the end for Lou Holtz's part.




If only Tebow used his celebrity status for good...looks like he'd have plenty of followers, including this female.


I wish the Wolves would do this ever since they traded KG.

Man Packers fans have got so much class...



Some people take their college football a little too seriously. I love how Fowler can't even talk about it on the air with a straight face.



Finally, here is our song of the day, courtesy of Mr. Riley Becker, Young Forever by Jay Z

1. I had not yet started my pilgrimage to Santiago
   
2. I had recently developed ASS 2.0
3. The Twins were 3.0 GB the Tigers, but their record was 32-33
4. The NBA Finals had just finished

If all we did were take the scores from last week and see what our record would be against the entire league, we are completely ignoring the fact that scores and points from players can change so dramatically from week to week.

An understandable statement. But it's funny how we shouldn't base our thoughts of other teams after only one week when someone bases their rankings almost entirely on how many points a team scored the previous week. Observe:

Oly's Rankings
1. Duke Football - 68 points
2. Greek gods - 61 points
3. The Moops - 60 points
4. Primus Inter Pares - 61 points
5. Boston TD Party - 61 points
6. Deep Throw It - 50 points
7. Team Chris Brown - 49 points
8. Bulldogs - 39 points
9. Super Consistency - 38 points
10. Team Rihanna - 25 points

If we remove the Moops from the list, these rankings would be in descending order of points that teams scored after only one week. It appears that our points won't be "dramatically" changing from week to week in the future if this is how Da Commish sees each team's abilities this year. If that were also true, than my ratings would be perfect because they're already based on those points from last week just like his!

I also enjoyed the Transaction of the Week, seeing as how I was a part of it for the first time. I'll agree it was a gamble on my part. And hey, who's not going to be sorry he let go of a 30 point performance? But let's take a look at what happened in Week 2 from this trade:

Deep Throw It:
Drew Brees - 17 points
Ray Rice - 3 points
Brandon Marshall - 1 point
TOTAL - 21 points

Primus Inter Pares:
LaDainian Tomlinson - 0 points (Injured, did not play)
Dwayne Bowe - 8 points
Vincent Jackson - 13 points
TOTAL - 21 points.

Yes, it was a tie. And yes, LT was hurt, which was a gamble I had to deal with when making that trade. But the trade was an even tie in points gained in Week 2, despite me not having my prize RB from the trade playing at all. Things are looking up for me when LT is healthy.

So finally, with all of that said, here are the ratings after Week 2:


Joe's all-around fantasy dominance seems to still be intact. Ironically, by my metrics, the most underrated team is Primus Inter Pares. (I'll probably get an eye-full about that [not an earful, since this is a blog]) The most overrated team to date is The Moops, who are even less overrated than I am underrated, so there are virtually no problems there. We certainly have a lot of ties which can shake/screw our league standings up by not giving team full credit where it's due. Maybe if there were only a way to reduce all of these ties and award full appropriate points where they are deserved? (I particularly like the 0:44 mark and on)

David L. Rogers also seems to agree. (It's #1 on the list for pete's sake!)

I am without media for this week. It appears to me that Da Commish has stumbled upon the same website I have been using to show you all funny media. I'll contribute what I can in the meantime, but he can include the stuff that everyone's talking about. I can't seem to catch a break from this guy ....

Well seeing as Mr. Ries began his clearly misguided formulas and rankings for the season, I figured it was time to awaken myself from my hibernation on Da Commish's Thoughts (more on the name later). This week we pretty much saw a continuation of last season, with virtually all the same teams winning and almost all the same teams losing as usual. And of course we had a tie this week...thank you Jamarcus Russell for giving us such an unlikely occurence.

As for the name of the blog, I will gladly change the name but I have not thought of a different one. If there are any suggestions please let me know. I would prefer a humorous one if possible, so hopefully our resident comedians Jack or Mike can come up with one.

Now back to analyzing this week's matchups, and let's not forget the refuting of Mr. Ries's poor rankings. First off with the rankings. If all we did were take the scores from last week and see what our record would be against the entire league, we are completely ignoring the fact that scores and points from players can change so dramatically from week to week. For instance, I am not planning on Drew Brees scoring me 30 points per week (although I wouldn't turn it down). At the same time, I am not expecting the rest of my team to only score me 20 points (if they do, I might as well quit playing fantasy football). Same with Andy somehow getting 16 points from John Carlson (P.S. what are the odds Schneider had no idea who Carlson was when he drafted him anyways?). Also, a team could pick up or start a completely different lineup that may have won them that week or improved their ranking. In order for any formula to be accurate, you would have to put in some measure of a managers tendency to start the guys who score that week. As another example, aside from Brees, I pretty much had a complete inability to start the right guys this week, with my bench outscoring my starters (minus Brees). So there's my two cents on that...now onto the Week 1 Recap, as always in order of ass kicking.

Duke Football 68, Team Rihanna 25
Tmac starts right where he left off in fantasy baseball...in last place. To put things in perspective for how bad Team Rihanna was this week, Luke could have only started AP this week....and he still would have won. I expect Duke Football to ride the All-Day train as hard as Brett Favre this year, but we'll see how the rest of his team performs. I'm not all too concerned about Romo, but the only receiver I am sold on is Santonio Holmes. As for Tony's team, is there any hope? Believe it or not, there might be. The Johnson brothers are two of the best receivers in the league, Ryan should be a serviceable QB, and Slaton and Ronnie Brown should be average also. Even with Crabtree set to sit out this season, I'd be willing to bet he's on Team Rihanna the whole year, if past history in fantasy baseball is any predictor, there's always got to be a NA on Tony Mac's squad.

Boston TD Party 61, Super Consistency 38
Not a good start for team Oatmeal (why the new name, Riles?), and I don't know if there is much hope for a team with Schaub and Cutler as his QB's. That position might hold this team back, even though they have some decent other position players, but not much of a bench after Roy Williams. As for the TD Party, Tom Brady was as consistent as ever, but don't expect Thomas Jones to continue scoring 17 points a week. Not too sold on BTDP's number 2 WR either. I am a little salty towards JP's team solely because I had the one Baltimore RB who didn't score, and he has the two that did. I expect TD Party to be middle of the pack this year because I just don't see DeAngelo Williams playing as well as he did last hear, especially when his team has an excuse for a quarterback in Jake Delhomme.

The Moops 60, Team Chris Brown 49
Who would have guessed The Moops TE, DEF, and K would outscore the rest of his team? That probably doesn't bode well for Schneider, because like I said earlier, if John Carlson scores 16 a week, I would be amazed. There's not too much support on this team besides Turner the Burner, Fitzy and Cry Me a Rivers, so we'll see if he can continue being a force in the league. As for Team Wife-Beater, all players were relatively consistent, and I actually like Caff's team a lot. The only downside is having the ever-aging Kurt Warner at the QB slot. I'm not too convinced about him there, but other than that, The Cafferty's of Tiffany Lane have a very solid team.

Deep Throw It 50, Bulldogs 39
Da Commish is relatively pleased with the Week 1 win, but with that being said, I sincerely hope I don't have to depend on Drew Brees every single week. My wide receivers may also have bad-quarterback syndrome, with both Broncos and Steve Smith having terrible guys to get them the ball. As for my opponent, it feels good to beat baby bro and win the Battle of the Olson's this week. The Bulldogs have a decent team, but the McNabb injury definitely hurts his chances. Tom will have Lynch coming back in Week 3, and so his lineup will be even stronger.

Primus Inter Pares 61, Greek gods 61
Zeus and his boys upstairs must have had some hand in that Oakland-San Diego game, because Joey J definitely got a little luck to scrape up a tie this week. Jack had a very solid week, but I think that this might be the peak for his team. Every one of his starters, minus Jason Witten, recorded a touchdown, and that is not going to happen every single week. It's pretty clear that LT's coaching staff might not even consider him the best running back on his team anymore, so that'll hurt down the road. As far as Poseidon and the gang goes, once again the team's manager has fielder an extremely strong team, but I've done enough blowing smoke up Joe's ass before, so I'm not going to spend a ton of time on it.

Transaction of the Week
Primus Inter Pares trades Drew Brees, Brandon Marshall, and Ray Rice to Deep Throw It in exchange for Ladanian Tominlinson, Dwayne Bowe, and Vincent Jackson.

Since it happened before Week 1, I decided to feature it here. We'll see how the trade ends up in the long run, but the way I see it, Week 1 goes to me with Drew Brees scoring 30 points. Hard to argue that I think, even if Bowe and Jackson both scored TD's this week.

Oly's Rankings
1. Duke Football
2. Greek gods
3. The Moops
4. Primus Inter Pares
5. Boston TD Party
6. Deep Throw It
7. Team Chris Brown
8. Bulldogs
9. Super Consistency
10. Team Rihanna

Da Commish's Hot Clicks of the Week

4 Awkward Moments in Facebook Like History

The 10 Most Explosive Press Conference Blowups in Sports History

These make my farmer's tan look pretty tame.

Gotta have Michael Jordan's induction speech up on here...


Gus Johnson is one of the most ridiculous sports announcers in history



Two tennis clips to round it out...Serena and Rog





Finally the song of the week!

Penn Station by the Felice Brothers

Welcome to a brand new season of Armchair Fantasy Football folks. While we're still battling out the final prized spots in our grueling baseball league, many of you are looking to start fresh this fall. With the completion of Week 1, let's look at the numbers:


So I know I've churned out my fair share of metrics, but this one should be a lot simpler. Basically it asks: "For each week, what is my winning percentage if I had faced EVERYONE?" So as we can see, Duke Football has a projected win percentage of 100% only because it's only been 1 week and he had the highest point total so it didn't matter who he faced, he would have beat everyone. I'm not here to say that he will stay at 100% for long, but as time goes on, it gives us a good indicator of where people should be in the standings.

So here's what we can extract thusfar. Deep Throw It, as we can see from the league standings, scored the least points out of all teams that are 1.000. They were lucky to get a league win since they only had a 4/9 chance of facing a team with a worse point total than them. But they are the only team to have defied the odds this week. Everyone else is close to where they should be based on who they faced this week.

Take this week (and perhaps all remaining weeks) with a grain of salt. This is just Week 1 and so there is not a lot to conclude here.

MEDIA TIME!

This following clip (with help from Kevin Drakulic) perhaps needs an introduction. From Wikipedia:

Trailer Park Boys is a popular Canadian comedic mockumentary television series created and directed by Mike Clattenburg that focused on the misadventures of a group of trailer park residents, some of whom are ex-convicts, living in a fictional trailer park located in Dartmouth, Nova Scotia.

This clip revolves around a character named Ricky. Again, from Wiki:

Richard (Robb Wells), commonly referred to as "Ricky" by Julian, (and sometimes called "Richard" by Lahey) enjoys marijuana, mild and spicy pepperoni, chips, cigarettes and alcohol. Trademarks: black track pants; mangling the English language ("Rickyisms"); hitting people up for cigarettes (mainly Cory and Trevor); listening to 80's rock bands such as Helix, April Wine and Kim Mitchell; driving the "Shitmobile" around the park; threatening to sue the cops when they arrest him; never accepting blame for anything illegal or irresponsible he has done; and pointing out how his brain is inferior to everyone else's ("You know I've only got my grade 10"). Ricky is widely known for his "Rickyisms" which are his mispronunciation of words, phrases and names.

Here is a collection of Ricky's most famous Rickyisms:



And for our second one, a tribute to Patrick Swayze:



And then for kicks, let's include Luke's rap parody/ballad about Kanye. (TEAM TAYLOR!):



Thank you all.