Armchair Thoughts

It's already Week 4 Week 5, gentlemen. Can you believe it?  Who else is still trying to read the fine print on our newfangled rule book?  At least we've got one trade on the way already this season.  So what were the terms of that deal again? Joe is giving Brian (Or do we call you Goose?) Matt Moore, four of this year's FAAB dollars plus a 2014 minor league second round draft pick, his sister's phone number, and $3.14 in real money?  And in return Goose is trading Aroldis Chapman and the rights of his co-manager Scooter? Is that right?  Sounds like a blockbuster.  It really makes me nostalgic about the good ol days when managers traded players straight up with each (Or in the case of Dave when he signed on to Benny's team and traded with himself. Heyyy-oh! Sorry Dave, I feel that it's mandatory that I take at least one jab at you per blog post to stir the pot.)

Back to baseball.  Okay, maybe we were never on that subject yet.  What have we learned in the first three weeks? Bats, do indeed, hit crazy.  The Goose's flock has yet to fly back north for the summer. And Matt Kemp is a Greek god.

And that's about all I have for subjective analysis because I promised to stick to the numbers this on this blog.  Over a few dozen drinks this weekend with our league's legal team (Riley), I promised him I'd try to mix in an array of analyses that would come in shorter spurts but more frequently.  It would be more of the same old that we've seen in the past.  Review of last week, preview of the upcoming week, playoff predictions (might be further down the line), and other shenanigans.  I'll see what I can do.  If there's anything you guys would like me to crunch then let me know. As long as it's objective.  So help me if it's subjective and Dave-like I will end you.

WEEK 5 PREVIEW

So let's see.  Who do we got this week?

So I know I tweak my methodology every year, and this year is no different.  Essentially I'm taking the season-long projections of everyone's players and scale them to spit out what a given player with do for a given week. I add them all up for each team and get a team's weekly projection.  Then from there I did some mathy stuff to roughly get how likely a team will beat another team in a given category.  So I could tell you how likely Joe will beat JP in HRs in a given week based on their current rosters.  Saves are a little trickier because they're so hard to predict.  Projections in themselves are tough to get right but it's the best tool we have.  So why am I not showing you the whole grid?  Well simply it wouldn't be in my best interest to serve as a manager in this league and also a conslutant for every team and show them where they have glaring weaknesses.

Since I've written so much already, I'll just let you digest the above table for now and skip the summaries of each matchup.  Enjoy your week. 

Oh and this is why we can't have nice things.

It's been a while since we spit out some hot Armchair thoughts all over everybody. (Sorry for that image everyone) We see Dave's subjects are going to be all subjective on here, openly subjecting himself to scrutiny (see what I did there?). But me? I don't roll like that. If I let machines do all of my decisionmaking for me, then I don't have to own up to any definitive statements. You don't like what I have to say? Go scream at Watson. Seeing as how it's not long until machines take over the world (you know it to be true), I figure I might as well get good with them now. Where am I going with all of this? Well think of my posts as the exact opposite of Dave's posts. Dave points out the overpays/underpays of each team based on what he thinks, I say why don't we get analytical about this?

I took each player drafted and the price each manager paid for them and compared them to the avg price paid by a Yahoo! manager. I'll just mirror Dave and do overpay/underpay.


We can do better. One snag we have is that if we sum up the prices paid for all of our players we get ~$2525 (some people had leftover money). If we sum up the average Yahoo! price of those same players, we get $3020.9. So I adjusted each player's Yahoo! avg price, making the assumption that all of their dollars added up to $2525. Here's that same table again with the adjusted prices:


If we do this for every player we can sum them all up and see how much each team paid above or below the avg Yahoo! price:


Before we declare Ricky Bobby Andersoon Cooper John Paul the *winner* of this year's draft, what do these numbers actually mean? Well it's sort of saying that 3 1st Names got the most bang for their buck. While we all spent (about) the same amount of money, JP's team has players with higher Adjusted Avg Yahoo! Price. I think we can all make the assumption that if a player has a higher Avg Draft Price, he's a better fantasy player. So I suppose that the table above could suggest how well our draft went and ipso facto, how good our teams are.

However, this table is crap. No not only because I'm projected to be in last place, but because there are much better ways of predicting how this season will turn out. I'll try to shoot for a season preview sometime later this week. And boy is it much more accurate than what I just did in this post.

As I'm sure all of you greatly missed it last season, I decided to bring back the league blog! For the two new member of the Armchair League, a year or two ago I recapped each week with a blog post, also including any (not-so) clever banter, Youtube clips, or anything else I feel like including each week. So since we are missing Week 1, I figured I'd give my two cents about the results of the auction. Overall, I think everyone's team looks pretty even, but there are some more than others (*cough* Schneider *cough*) who fared well. What I decided to do was to give my thoughts on each team by talking about one guy they might have reached for and one guy they got a deal on. As always, I welcome feed back, even if it's completely disagreeing and stating what a fool I am (which I look to Mike and Jack for usually).

[sno]KONY Dynasty-Mike
Overpay: Josh Johnson $15- This one really depends on Johnson's health. The past couple of years when he has been healthy, Josh Johnson has been a very solid pitcher. The only problem is I feel like he gets injured rather frequently. There were more pitchers that went for the same price that are more consistent and don't have the health concerns that Johnson does.
Great Deal: Jesus Montero $1-This was one of my favorite pickups, and it's an even better buy for how our league is set up going forward. Even if Jesus Montero will now be playing at the pitcher-friendly Safeco Field, he still is one of the best young hitters in the league. The fact that Mike will be able to keep him (if he so chooses) for a buck next year and then can sign him to a very friendly long-term deal makes it an even better deal. Clearly the rest of us were sleeping when this nomination came.

Comps Ratio-Andy
Overpay: Michael Young $19- It's hard to come up with an overpay when a team leaves $35 on the table at the draft, but I think this would be my choice. Young usually is pretty consistent with the average, but the power he used to have has all but left him. When a guy like Mark Texeira goes for a dollar more than Young, I feel pretty safe saying that Tex will outperform Young. I also think that Ted Lily has no business being nominated in this shallow of an auction either.
Great Deal: Lance Berkman $7- This buy will also have to work out health wise, but, opposite of Josh Johnson, I think the health factor worked in Schneider's favor. While I don't expect Berkman to mash like he did last year, he still will be a double digit value player, so getting for $7 was pretty good.

Zihuatanejo-Dave
Overpay: Billy Butler $7-This was a mistake on my part. I didn't want Butler to begin with, but I saw that Schneider had been kicked off and the computer was bidding for him, so I figured I'd try and bump the price up at least to what Yahoo! recommended. This still was somewhat decent value for Butler, but with already having a couple first basemen and then getting Big Papi, Butler was probably overkill.
Great Deal: Freddie Freeman $2- Even though I already had a couple of first basemen, Freeman at only $2 was too tough to pass up. He finished second in the National League Rookie of the Year ballots, and that should usually bring a guy to close to ten bucks. I was very happen, and depending on how he performs and improves, he is a definite keeper candidate.

TBD2-Jack
Overpay: Heath Bell $16- This is more of a personal preference, but most of you know that I hate to pay that much for closers. Bell was the most expensive closer. He is a good one, but with the volatility of closers within the league every single year, it's hard to justify spending this much, especially when one could argue Bell isn't even in the top 5 of closers.
Great Deal: Alexei Ramirez $3- Looking closer at Jack's lineup, he put a disturbingly large amount of his budget on pitching. He was able to do that by finding some deals like Ramirez. Alexei really is closer to being a double digit player, as he is one of the top 10 shortstops in the league. It's pretty clear Jack though that heavy pitching was the way to go, so it should be interesting to see how this plays out, as there usually is more pitching available on the waiver wire than hitting. As always, Jack provides us with an interesting case study.

Goose's Flock-Ellingboe
Overpay: David Price $21-I actually like Ellingboe's team a lot. He paid the price for the guys he wanted, and then grabbed a bunch of buck-a-player guys to fill in after that. He got the top shortstop and catcher, as well as a comeback candidate that can play 3b (Hanley). That being said, paying $21 for Price is a little pricey (I know, I know...too easy). Price quietly has become a dominant pitcher, but there are some guys I like a little more that went for less.
Great Deal: Victor Martinez $1- Really, one of us should have stepped in and at least bid Goose up a little bit for this steal. Yes, we know Martinez is out for the year, but Brian can stash VMart on the DL for the whole year and keep him for a buck next year. This will work out great if the rest of Brian's team stays healthy, otherwise it'll be tough to stash a guy on the DL the whole year.

Tony McDonald-Tony
Overpay: Stephen Strasburg $20- Obviously it's hard not to like Strasburg's blazing heater, but the fact of the matter is that he did have Tommy John surgery, and he's not throwing near as hard as what made him famous. In comparison, Cole Hamels went for the same price as Strasburg. Yes, Strasburg has a lot of upside, but you're kidding yourself if you're saying Strasburg is more likely to have the better season between the two.
Great Deal: Giancarlo Stanton $20-This one is pretty close to the right value for Stanton, but if Stanton ever figures out a way to get his average up, he'll be a bigger monster than he already is. He provides a lot of power, which is obviously a hot commodity.

TBD-Riley
Overpay: Carlos Beltran $17-File this one in the category of injury risk as well. If Beltran stays healthy, there's a chance that he could fulfill this value. It's still a small chance my opinion, so $17 is just too rich for my blood. He is injured more often than he is healthy, so it's just hard to justify this price.
Great Deal: Jimmy Rollins $12- Rollins is one of those guys that have been around for so long it seems like everyone kind of gets bored with him. I think that might have had something to do with the price he went for. He's past his prime, but there's still a possibility he could hit 20 dingers and 30 steals, which still has value, obviously.

3 First Names-JP
Overpay: Yu Darvish $14-There's just too many unknowns, in my opinion, for Darvish to go for this much. Does he have the stuff? Of course, but can he last against major league hitters over a longer season in the Texas heat? I'm more than skeptical.
Great Deal: Andrew Bailey $3- Low price for a closer for one of the top teams in the league? Pretty good deal. Low price for high upside. There is an injury risk, but for $3, it's worth the risk, especially with how many relievers JP picked up.

Defending Champion
Overpay: Joe Mauer $20- Homer tax and everything, this was way too much to spend on Mauer the Milker. Obviously, if he returns to his MVP type form, then it's worth the $20. I don't see that happening however, as Mauer has barely been able to stay healthy, whether it be pneumonia or the nefarious bilateral leg weakness.
Great Deal: Paul Goldschmidt $4- This is another high-upside, low risk. Goldschmidt will probably get full playing time with the Dbacks. He could definitely be the new Mark Reynolds, a guy who can hit the ball a mile but strikes out A LOT. If he cashes in on the power, he could hit 30 dingers, which would be amazing for only $4.

BilateralLegWeakness
Overpay: Madison Bumgarner $15- I struggled to find an overpay with Mooch's team, as I also like his team a lot. Bumgarner could potentially make the Giants strong duo into a trio, but it's no guarantee. There were a lot of guys who have proven a lot more in their careers than Bumgarner, so we'll see how this one plays out.
Great Deal: Matt Wieters $6- I've always kind of liked Wieters, despite the fact he hasn't necessarily put everything together yet to become the megastar people claimed he was going to be. If he can put it all together this year, or even most of it together, than he is definitely worth the $6 it took to get him.

I was planning on ranking how I think the teams will finish this season, but normally that leads to more criticism and ridicule, and people get offended when I pick their teams to finish last. With that being the case, I'd love to hear others' thoughts on the auction, both how it turned out and how it ran. I'm very excited about this year, specially with the added element of keepers, auction dollars and future draft picks to trade, and the fact that baseball is back!