| ExpWin | ActWin | Wins Off | |
| Visanthe's WankYo | 0.721 | 0.714 | 0.0 |
| SnakesOnAReggieWayne | 0.637 | 0.357 | -1.7 |
| www.SinRepresas.com | 0.612 | 0.714 | 0.6 |
| The Dawg Pound | 0.559 | 0.571 | 0.1 |
| Stringer's Bells | 0.555 | 0.429 | -0.8 |
| Scorgasms | 0.505 | 0.714 | 1.3 |
| Robert Paulson | 0.476 | 0.429 | -0.3 |
| Vandelay Industries | 0.451 | 0.500 | 0.3 |
| Let Me See Your TD's | 0.273 | 0.143 | -0.8 |
| Team Selena Gomez | 0.210 | 0.429 | 1.3 |
Best = [Vissoint's] WankYo
Worst = Team Selena Gomez
Luckiest = Scorgasms
Unluckiest = SnakesOnAReggieWayne
It's funny how Joe is always unlucky at Fantasy Football.
MEDIA!
http://www.bannedinhollywood.com/7-excellent-football-fail-gifs/
| ExpWin | ActWin | Delta | |
| Visanthe's WankYo | 0.711 | 0.667 | -0.3 |
| www.SinRepresas.com | 0.650 | 0.667 | 0.1 |
| SnakesOnAReggieWayne | 0.595 | 0.333 | -1.6 |
| The Dawg Pound | 0.583 | 0.667 | 0.5 |
| Stringer's Bells | 0.558 | 0.500 | -0.3 |
| Scorgasms | 0.504 | 0.667 | 1.0 |
| Robert Paulson | 0.475 | 0.333 | -0.9 |
| Vandelay Industries | 0.367 | 0.500 | 0.8 |
| Let Me See Your TD's | 0.319 | 0.167 | -0.9 |
| Team Selena Gomez | 0.237 | 0.500 | 1.6 |
Expected Win%
Actual Win %
Delta = ActWin-ExpWin, so if it's positive you have a better than expected record.
MEDIA!
Well with baseball behind us, (fantasy and otherwise) I figured I'd turn my attention to fantasy football, of which I (and everyone else) have failed to provide accurate analysis yet. I pretty much change how I rate our teams every year thinking that each new version is better than the last. (And I'm convinced this one is the best to date) But I've learned thusfar that you guys don't really want to know how the sausage is made, as long as you get the sausage.
And yes, that was a Brett Favre pun.
So if anyone is ever interested in how I get these, let me know. In the meantime, here are everyone's numbers, which is the percent chance that you beat an average team based on your past scores:
And welcome back, MEDIA!
And welcome back, Eastbound and Down:
This is what I live for people. Postseason odds. I even did it a little differently this year - only the best for my armchair boys. Here's the breakdown:
| Team | Semifinals | Championship | Champion |
| (1) Joe's Torn Ligament | 100.0% | 66.2% | 31.4% |
| (2) Make it Rain (TPF) | 100.0% | 39.6% | 25.6% |
| (3) Abusement Park | 47.0% | 33.3% | 23.4% |
| (6) Winston Wolfe | 53.0% | 27.1% | 13.7% |
| (5) Maewyn Succat | 70.9% | 24.0% | 4.3% |
| (4) La Furia Roja | 29.1% | 9.8% | 1.6% |
[P.S. If a team tied, I just said whoever won the ERA category got the tiebreaker. I think that's how it has been in the past.]
The 4 and 5 seeds get jobbed for having to play the best team in the league in the 2nd round, while the 2, 3, and 6 seeds are all relatively bunched in terms of team strength. Joe's projected to win a little less than 1/3 of the time, but anything can happen in the playoffs, boys. If Abusement Park can get out of the 1st round, they would matchup better against Make it Rain (TPF) than Tony's boys, based on the strength of their individual categories, even though they're not favored to get past Tony in the first round.
Here's how our playoff teams relative strengths are looking:
| Team | ProjW% |
| (1) Joe's Torn Ligament | 0.652 |
| (2) Make it Rain (TPF) | 0.598 |
| (3) Abusement Park | 0.602 |
| (6) Winston Wolfe | 0.534 |
| (5) Maewyn Succat | 0.519 |
| (4) La Furia Roja | 0.519 |
Make it Rain (TPF) is quite lucky they secured that bye week, since Abusement Park is supposed to be the better team.
One week until playoffs. We've got a vague idea about where people will fall. But what are they odds that you're team makes the playoffs? I've got the answers here.
Here is the projected bracket:
1) Joe's Torn Ligament
8) Bye
4) Maewynn Succat
5) Winston Wolfe
3) Abusement Park
6) La Furia Roja
2) Make It Rain (TPF)
7) Bye
And as for the cellar dwellar of this year. Sexaul Napalm holds a close edge over Mom Didn't Like Name, 50% to 45%.
So even though I lost my previous program to run this, this simulation shouldn't be far off. I used everyone's W% in each category as their "true" talent level at each category. Translation: This simulation is going to assume that how well you've done in the past in every category is a good indicator of how you will do in the future. So I input our current standings, and simulated the remaining 3 weeks. There's a bunch more to it, but I figure you guys just want to know your odds of making the playoffs. I ran 50,000 mock seasons and below shows how many times out of those 50,000 seasons you made the playoffs and what your W% is and so forth. Here you go. (Blank spaces mean 0% chance. If a space says 0%, then it's below .5%)
Another side note. I did not include playoff tiebreakers. So if 2 people tied for 6th place, with 5 teams already in, this program assumes you both are in the playoffs. I'm just too lazy to do more. So how about we rename this as a program that gives "Odds of Playoff Consideration ... Before Tiebreakers".
Week 9 Evaluation
| WeekRank | Batter | Pitcher | PredW% | ActW% |
| Make It Rain (TPF) | 0.481 | 0.454 | 0.468 | 0.458 |
| Enter Sandman | 0.389 | 0.361 | 0.375 | 0.208 |
| Sexual Napalm | 0.500 | 0.676 | 0.588 | 0.667 |
| Maewyn Succat | 0.898 | 0.519 | 0.708 | 0.792 |
| La Furia Roja | 0.148 | 0.583 | 0.366 | 0.292 |
| Abusement Park | 0.870 | 0.704 | 0.787 | 0.917 |
| Mom Didn't Like Name | 0.185 | 0.398 | 0.292 | 0.083 |
| Winston Wolfe | 0.213 | 0.231 | 0.222 | 0.333 |
| Dmitri Petrovich | 0.694 | 0.343 | 0.519 | 0.542 |
| JJ's Galacticos | 0.620 | 0.731 | 0.676 | 0.708 |
Overall Adjusted Standings
| Division | WeekCatW% | ActW% | PredW% | DeltaW | MatchupW% |
| DS | JJ's Galacticos | 0.588 | 0.617 | -3.1 | 0.799 |
| TK | Make It Rain (TPF) | 0.593 | 0.579 | 1.5 | 0.706 |
| DS | Maewyn Succat | 0.528 | 0.536 | -0.9 | 0.598 |
| TK | Abusement Park | 0.505 | 0.528 | -2.6 | 0.574 |
| TK | Sexual Napalm | 0.509 | 0.507 | 0.3 | 0.520 |
| TK | Dmitri Petrovich | 0.472 | 0.495 | -2.4 | 0.488 |
| TK | Winston Wolfe | 0.500 | 0.453 | 5.1 | 0.363 |
| DS | Enter Sandman | 0.495 | 0.453 | 4.6 | 0.368 |
| DS | La Furia Roja | 0.407 | 0.446 | -4.2 | 0.345 |
| DS | Mom Didn't Like Name | 0.412 | 0.387 | 2.7 | 0.205 |
Playoff Odds
| W% | RANK | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | PLAYOFF | |
| Make It Rain (TPF) | 0.587 | 1.8 | 39.1% | 49.5% | 6.9% | 3.0% | 1.4% | 0.1% | 99.9% |
| Enter Sandman | 0.467 | 7.1 | 0.0% | 0.1% | 1.5% | 4.1% | 10.3% | 18.8% | 34.8% |
| Sexual Napalm | 0.507 | 4.9 | 0.4% | 3.2% | 16.5% | 21.7% | 27.9% | 15.4% | 85.2% |
| Maewyn Succat | 0.531 | 3.8 | 2.0% | 7.1% | 41.6% | 26.7% | 12.8% | 6.5% | 96.7% |
| La Furia Roja | 0.440 | 8.3 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 2.4% | 8.5% | 11.7% |
| Abusement Park | 0.519 | 4.3 | 0.5% | 5.6% | 27.1% | 29.1% | 18.1% | 9.8% | 90.3% |
| Mom Didn't Like Name | 0.407 | 9.6 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 1.4% | 1.5% |
| Winston Wolfe | 0.466 | 7.1 | 0.0% | 0.2% | 1.5% | 3.9% | 10.1% | 16.9% | 32.7% |
| Dmitri Petrovich | 0.478 | 6.4 | 0.0% | 0.2% | 4.0% | 8.3% | 15.5% | 23.6% | 51.6% |
| JJ's Galacticos | 0.598 | 1.5 | 60.8% | 31.6% | 5.9% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 99.9% |
Next Week's Odds
| Week | Matchup | Team | MatchupW% |
| 10 | 1 | La Furia Roja | 67.0% |
| 10 | 1 | Mom Didn't Like Name | 33.0% |
| 10 | 2 | Winston Wolfe | 13.0% |
| 10 | 2 | JJ's Galacticos | 87.0% |
| 10 | 3 | Maewyn Succat | 61.5% |
| 10 | 3 | Dmitri Petrovich | 38.5% |
| 10 | 4 | Sexual Napalm | 44.4% |
| 10 | 4 | Abusement Park | 55.6% |
| 10 | 5 | Make It Rain (TPF) | 80.0% |
| 10 | 5 | Enter Sandman | 20.0% |
League Strength
| ActW% | PredW% | MatchupW% | Batter | Pitcher | |
| Tom Kocon | 0.514 | 0.512 | 0.537 | 0.503 | 0.521 |
| Dan Stuart | 0.486 | 0.488 | 0.463 | 0.497 | 0.479 |
Media
Not the greatest selection this week. But here we go:
And while the buildup is nice, the blown call happens around 3:10:
Week 8 Evaluation
| Week 8 | Batter | Pitcher | PredW% | ActualW% |
| Make It Rain (TPF) | 0.657 | 0.926 | 0.792 | 0.583 |
| La Furia Roja | 0.981 | 0.324 | 0.653 | 0.667 |
| JJ's Galacticos | 0.481 | 0.602 | 0.542 | 0.500 |
| The Master Baker | 0.370 | 0.685 | 0.528 | 0.333 |
| Dmitri Petrovich | 0.639 | 0.380 | 0.509 | 0.500 |
| Sexual Napalm | 0.491 | 0.444 | 0.468 | 0.500 |
| Maewyn Succat | 0.713 | 0.167 | 0.440 | 0.417 |
| Mom Didn't Like Name | 0.259 | 0.519 | 0.389 | 0.708 |
| Enter Sandman | 0.231 | 0.509 | 0.370 | 0.500 |
| Winston Wolfe | 0.176 | 0.444 | 0.310 | 0.292 |
Overall Adjusted Standings
| Division | WeekCatW% | ActW% | PredW% | DeltaW | MatchupW% |
| DS | JJ's Galacticos | 0.573 | 0.609 | -3.5 | 0.782 |
| TK | Make It Rain (TPF) | 0.609 | 0.593 | 1.6 | 0.737 |
| DS | Maewyn Succat | 0.495 | 0.514 | -1.9 | 0.536 |
| TK | Sexual Napalm | 0.490 | 0.497 | -0.7 | 0.499 |
| TK | The Master Baker | 0.453 | 0.496 | -4.1 | 0.487 |
| TK | Dmitri Petrovich | 0.464 | 0.492 | -2.7 | 0.476 |
| TK | Winston Wolfe | 0.521 | 0.481 | 3.8 | 0.445 |
| DS | Enter Sandman | 0.531 | 0.462 | 6.6 | 0.391 |
| DS | La Furia Roja | 0.422 | 0.456 | -3.3 | 0.373 |
| DS | Mom Didn't Like Name | 0.453 | 0.399 | 5.2 | 0.236 |
Playoff Odds
| W% | RANK | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | PLAYOFF | |
| Make It Rain (TPF) | 0.594 | 1.5 | 61.2% | 31.6% | 5.4% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 99.9% |
| Enter Sandman | 0.486 | 6.0 | 0.6% | 2.6% | 10.4% | 14.7% | 13.8% | 18.6% | 60.6% |
| Sexual Napalm | 0.493 | 5.5 | 0.7% | 2.4% | 13.4% | 20.3% | 15.8% | 15.2% | 67.9% |
| Maewyn Succat | 0.510 | 4.6 | 0.7% | 6.8% | 29.6% | 18.5% | 15.9% | 11.1% | 82.6% |
| La Furia Roja | 0.451 | 8.1 | 0.0% | 0.3% | 1.0% | 2.7% | 4.3% | 8.1% | 16.4% |
| The Master Baker | 0.486 | 6.0 | 0.0% | 1.7% | 11.4% | 17.4% | 16.4% | 13.1% | 59.9% |
| Mom Didn't Like Name | 0.434 | 8.9 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 2.1% | 3.4% | 7.0% |
| Winston Wolfe | 0.493 | 5.4 | 0.4% | 3.0% | 16.9% | 16.8% | 18.3% | 14.7% | 70.1% |
| Dmitri Petrovich | 0.473 | 6.8 | 0.0% | 0.9% | 5.3% | 9.7% | 12.2% | 16.2% | 44.2% |
| JJ's Galacticos | 0.580 | 1.8 | 40.4% | 48.5% | 8.0% | 2.0% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 99.9% |
Next Week's Odds
| Week | Matchup | Team | MatchupW% |
| 9 | 1 | La Furia Roja | 14.3% |
| 9 | 1 | JJ's Galacticos | 85.7% |
| 9 | 2 | The Master Baker | 75.4% |
| 9 | 2 | Mom Didn't Like Name | 24.6% |
| 9 | 3 | Sexual Napalm | 55.4% |
| 9 | 3 | Winston Wolfe | 44.6% |
| 9 | 4 | Make It Rain (TPF) | 75.5% |
| 9 | 4 | Dmitri Petrovich | 24.5% |
| 9 | 5 | Enter Sandman | 35.7% |
| 9 | 5 | Maewyn Succat | 64.3% |
League Strength
| ActW% | PredW% | MatchupW% | Batter | Pitcher | |
| Tom Kocon | 0.505 | 0.512 | 0.537 | 0.497 | 0.526 |
| Dan Stuart | 0.495 | 0.488 | 0.463 | 0.503 | 0.474 |
Media