So I have something to confess.
Yes, I'm in Spain. Yes, I'm loving it.
But my mind has scarily not been far from fantasy baseball.
I have yet to go a day without checking it. And even more sadly, I have devoted almost the last two full days into making a new ASS. My old one was good, but not great. I had a lot of questions about it. ASS 2.0 is even better. I have 99.9% confidence in it (barring the exception of any internal errors that I may have miss, OR critiques any of you may have), but it should be just fine.
Basically, ASS 2.0, applies the same ideas as before, but I do 1000 (yes 1000) simulations of the past weeks against evey other team. You could have your Week 3 Runs face off against Da Commish's Week 6 Runs, OR your Week 7 HLDs vs Manny Being Manny's Week 2 HLDs ... and those are each just one of the possible outcomes that are played out for over 1000 simulations. So whoever wins a random simulation, they get 1 point (the loser gets 0), but also I gave .5 of a point for a tie. Add em all up, divide by 1000, that's your W% for that stat against each team. Average out each team's stats for each category against each team, and voila! It's your ASS 2.0 WPCT.
So to straighten any questions you all may have. This merely looks at past performance and says where you SHOULD be. If you're sitting high in the league rank and quite low in the ASS 2.0 rank, you've been lucky up until this point. You should be lower and you've gotten lucky by either barely winning cateogries against teams that should have beat you, or you've played all the easy teams thusfar, or you've played good teams when they had bad weeks ... and so on.
After Week 7:
So it's hard for you all to argue with this (I hope). Like I said, I have 99.9% confidence in this. So do not burst my bubble. Needless to say, it takes up over 7000 KB on my computer. Yikes.
Superhydro, you've been quite unlucky thus far. If you keep putting up the numbers you have been doing, you should be climbing the league rank in no time. The Natural, on the other hand, you have gotten ver very lucky. You're sitting at 3rd in the league and you're going to have to change something if you want to hold your spot.
Chao.
P.S. Again, this is in no way a crystal ball projecting the future. That's a mistake I failed to explain last time. But it does say what has happened in the past and I think we can draw SOME conclusions from the past to predict the future.
P.P.S And also, since there always needs to be media:
Feels like it's been a long, long time since I've written anything. Summer's here but I think it's possible I have been more busy without school in my schedule. Anyways this week wasn't too unusual as far as the league goes. Same people are still jumbled together, and Joe continues to make his pointless predictions (Joe, we're not even halfway into the season yet...the season is still young). So here's the recap of the week...
Yung Joseph 10, Tony McDonald 4
Here's the Tony McDonald we know and love. I'm going to go Joe Johnston on everybody and make a prediction of my own. Tony McDonald will be in last place now for the majority of the rest of the season. Although he has relatively solid pitching, I just don't see how a team with hitters like Molina, Giambi, and Hawpe in the lineup can hold up through the rest of the year. Joe got a big week from ARod and Holiday, and also Alexei Ramirez immediately produced results as well. Although I do like Joe's team, I am getting a little irritated with the ridiculous predictions, so here's hoping Riles can keep going strong.
Superhydrophobocity 8, The Poblano Effect 4
JP took every hitting category minus average, and they pretty much split the pitching ones. Expect The Poblano Effect to drop while their manager is on his little vacation. How good Joe Mauer? 12 runs, 4 homers, and 13 runs batted in this week while batting .458 and an OPS of 1.558. Simply amazing how good he is. Second best hitter behind Pujols in my opinion, but he needs to cool down to the Twinkies can lock him up for his career.
The Natural 8, Da Commish 5
Aside from runs and strikeouts, virtually every category was a swing category. Thanks to Ron Gardenhire doing his best impersonation of Chuck Norris and switching the umpire's mind on Sunday, Justin Morneau hit a grand slam that won The Natural HR's this week. Not even Tex's 10 RBI's could help me out this week, but I'm still holding out hope the luck will balance out, as I'm only six games out of fourth place with four weeks until the halfway point. I still got time to make my move, and who isn't excited about Matt Wieters making his debut on Friday?!?
Religious Sects 8, Manny Being Manny 5
Another injury for Grim's team with Jose Reyes out for a while, and it's tough to see how his team won't continue to fall in the standings. Two swing categories went to Caff though, and so there's still hope for M&M. Looks like Pujols and Bartlett switched roles this week, with Bartlett knocking in 13 RUNS!! M&M continued to have solid pitching, despite not so good starts from Yovani and Volstad.
Just 2(5) Guyz 8, Consistency 6
LT pulls out another close one this week, and Mr. Consistency still holds onto his slim lead on first place. Probably won't last much longer though. Led by Adam Dunn, and Dan Uggla, J25Gz won RBI's handedly. Not too much else to say about this one, although Derek Lowe had another solid week (more on that in the coming weeks).
Transaction of the Week
Yung Joseph picks Alexei Ramirez (2b, ss, of) CWS off of waivers
Although he didn't do jack crap for Manny Being Manny, Ramirez all of a sudden got hot for YJ's team, which is obviously no surprise seeing as Joe possibly spends more time on the waiver wire than he does in his bed (or hanging out with his girlfriend....sorry, man. I had to do it). Since he got picked off the wire, The Cuban Missile has batted .391 with 2 home runs and 6 RBI's.
Oly's Rankings
1. Yung Joseph
2. Just 2(5) Guyz
3. Consistency
4. The Natural
5. Religious Sects
6. Manny Being Manny
7. Superhydrophobocity
8. The Poblano Effect
9. Da Commish
10. Tony McDonald
The best minute of the NBA Playoffs so far...all I can say is I Was a Witness...
For the enjoyment of our league math major here are:
10. Explicit discussions of either topic is a faux pas at most cocktail parties.
9. Historically, men have been in control, but there are now efforts to get women more involved.
8. There are many joint results.
7. Both are prominent on college campuses, and are usually practiced indoors.
6. Most people wish they knew more about both subjects.
5. Both involve long and hard problems, and can produce interesting topology and geometry.
4. Both merit undivided attention, but mathematicians are prone to think about one while doing the other.
3. Saint Augustine was hostile to both, and Alan Turing took an unusual approach to both.
2. Both typically begin with a lot of hard work and end with a great but brief reward.
1. Professionals are generally viewed with suspicion, and most do not earn high pay.
In honor of the UEFA Cup Final tomorrow, watch out for this guy on ESPN...
And here's the song of the week. Some of you probably have already heard it, but I like and so here you are: A-Punk by Vampire Weekend
Twins Update
| Cent | W | L | GB | |
| DET | F | 25 | 18 | -- |
| KCR | F | 22 | 23 | 4.0 |
| MIN | F | 22 | 24 | 4.5 |
| CHW | F | 20 | 24 | 5.5 |
| CLE | F | 18 | 28 | 8.5 |
And as I know all of you are wondering, the Tri-City Shark are currently 2-1. David Olson pitched 3.2 innings against Osceola, with 0 hits, 3 walks, and 6 strikeouts. We're starting a stretch of 8 games in 7 days so we'll see how it goes.
Hola from across the pond.
There is an advantage over here that my mornings start at 10AM over here, but it's still 3AM where you guys are. Meaning, I get first crack at the morning's wire. All I've got for you today is my numbers. I may have to tweak some numbers in the future since I'm not getting the types of results I'm looking for. But until then, these will have to do:
My one big problem is that our ERAs and WHIPs are so close (relatively of course), when in reality we have teams like Religious Sects who are 0-7-0 in WHIP. So either it's horrible bad luck on Mike's part, or that I'm going wrong about how I do my formulas. In the meantime, ASS projects a HUGE drop for The Natural (Who won't tell me why he rejects my trades, which doesn't help anyone) and also huge leaps upward for Religious Sects and Superhydrophobicity, who sit in 6th and 7th place in the league, respectively.Since, no weekly review is complete without any sort of funny or awe-astounding media, (A template that I established first, and long ago) I'll throw this video into the mix:
Until next time,
Chao.
What an action packed week this week! Finals, a fifteen-inning wiffleball game, some name changes, a last to fifth jump, a prediction gone wrong, and our first owner that has dropped off the map. Bet you can guess who that last one is...onto the Recap.
Just 2(5) Guyz 11, Manny Being Manny (less) 1
Who knew one guy would make such a difference? J25G'z finally broke out of their close-but-so-far ways thanks to Prince Fielder's big week, Jake Peavy, and last week's transaction of the week Juan Pierre crossing the plate seven times this week. As a testament to the parity in our league, the win propelled J25G'z all the way to fifth! After being last since the beginning of the season it's good to see Luke out of the cellar, and a different team (who I predicted from week 1) as the cellar dweller. JJmmH's apparently gone flaccid since Manny's suspension, hence the name change, but I still don't think he has too much to worry about. Your desperate cry for help because of injuries is pretty exaggerated though Danny, seeing as Tmac and Mike have had at least four or five guys hurt every week. Your real problem this week was poor starts by Danks, Volstad, and Saunders, and also not getting Yovani a start doesn't help either. Nevertheless, expect this team to slide a little with new starters Rod Barajas and Paul Konerko.
Consistency 8, Yung Joseph 5
After Joe's romp last week, he had that feeling of euphoria going on and decided to claim the top spot as his by the end of the week. Instead, his Ray Edwards-like prediction completey blew up in his face, thanks to a collaboration of pitchers (Mr.'s Johnson, Hochevar, Zito, Uehara, Perkins, Baker, Harang, Putz, and Morrow). In an out-of-character move, Joey J expressed his frustration with young Luke Hochevar through the smack talk, though without cussing, so my new no-swearing policy may actually be working (probably not though). This public lashing set the tone for the rest of the week apparently, because almost all of Joe's pitchers went the Hochevar route this week. When I talked to the manager of YJ, he said he was going to take a couple days off of fantasy baseball (gasp!), but apparently he was pulling my leg because as I right this, he was the first one to make a move today. Joe, when most people say "break," it lasts longer than seven hours. That's not a break, that's sleep. Schneider wins another close one, and so continues to hold on to his lead of the league. Despite the snapping of the hit streak, Ryan Zimmerman had another solid week, and so no idea why he's still on the trading block. Co-Consistency Captains Cabrera and Bay had their regular weeks too, and Derek Lowe had a little retribution to his former team, and we'll continue to see how the Kemp for 3 trades turns out further (or farther?) down the road.
Da Commish 8, Tony McDonald 6
This spot was going to be about Tmac no longer being with us and dropping off the map, but as I look now he changed his lineup today for the first time this week. Had he not had Carlos Delgado and his ailing hip starting the entire week, it's possible the hitting categories may or may not have been a little closer. My hitters finally woke up this week (Thank God!), leading the league in HR's and RBI's. Looks like it was an all-around effort, led by Adam Jones (until he got hurt), Geovany Soto (who has finally realized he plays baseball for a living) and Brandon Phillips. Had it not been for Roy Halladay's two stellar starts this week, I might have been able to steal ERA and WHIP too, but it was for not. With Tmac's attention starting to wander and summertime strolls up, I see his team probably taking a little drop in the standings in the near future.
The Poblano Effect 7, The Natural 6
This one was real close the entire week, with SEVEN swing categories going to different sides. Carl Crawford decided to give AL catchers a chance this week, and so he only swiped two bags for Roy Hobbs. Pitching was brutual on both sides, and to be honest, it's a good thing these two were playing each other this week because they scored lower than the rest of the league in a lot of categories this week. With that being said, The Natural is still only a half-game out of third and Senor Salsa still is in the middle to bottom half of the pack, as predicted by yours truly. I don't think this will change either, as PE's manager will be taking a little siesta in Espana until mid-July, and so for obvious reasons, won't spend half as much time on the Armchair website (although that will probably be more time than most of us).
Religious Sects 7, Superhydrophobocity 6
These two split almost right down the middle, with Pastoral Intercourse (don't know if it works) taking the hitting categories, and SHP taking the pitching ones. Mike finally got his long-awaited starters off the DL, and how does Lackey repay him? By getting ejected after two pitches...at least he'll be well-rested when he tries again. Strong starts by Johan, Cliff Lee, and Dan Meyer helped JP this week, but it couldn't keep him out of the toilet of our league, last place. JP sorry to say, but as long as Cantu and Scutaro are supposed to be contributing members on your team, your not going anywhere fast.
Transaction of the Week
Manny Being Manny drops Ryan Doumit, C PIT
With a lot of guys hurt or suspended on his roster and only two DL spots available, Grimm decided to cut ties with his starting catcher this week. Although I wasn't a huge fan of Doumit in the first place, I feel it was a poor decision to drop him. Without Doumit on the roster, it leaves MbM with Rod Barajas as their lone catcher, and that's not a good enough option for someone who wants to contend. Even though he won't be back until July, Doumit is worth a pickup for someone else's DL spot.
Oly's Rankings
1. Competency
2. Yung Joseph
3. Just 2(5) Guyz
4. The Natural
5. Manny Being Manny
6. Religious Sects
7. Da Commish
8. The Poblano Effect
9. Tony McDonald
10. Superhydrophobocity
Da Commish's Hot Clicks of the Week
I've always wondered where the man who had an NBA championship fall into his lap lived....
Who wouldn't want a boss like this?
It's been covered a lot....but here's Happy's story.
Thought I'd introduce a Song of the Day with my posts, but I'll try and include songs or artists that aren't that popular, so they might be hit or miss...the first one is "Sugarfoot" by Black Joe Lewis and the Honeybears...Let me know what you think.
No matter how biased he is. you can't say Bert Blyleven doesn't have some guts...
Get your "JuanPierreWOOD" shirts now!
Even with how wild Loren Egan was on the mound, he could still do better than this guy...
One can only hope that Tubby can work his magic on this kid...Funny Mike, I don't see Wisconsin on his list of candidates on Rivals, do you?
Well that's all I think for now...should be enough for you guys to chew on this week. I'm working on another post to add on to Jack's hitting versus pitching debate, but I don't know when it'll be up with my Lynx internship and Tri-City Shark season starting up today...I'll try to get it up ASAP
Before I begin, I would have to agree with you Jack about the guy interviewing Erin Andrews. She looks so uncomfortable it's almost a struggle to watch, but then I remind myself it's Erin Andrews and I watch anyways. Also, our league has come a long way when quotes from our holiest Book and a famous American lyricist (according to Wikipedia).
On your comments about my Kemp post, I'm not sure exactly if I am being mocked or taken seriously because sarcasm struggles to come through on the Internet. I hope it's sincere, but if not, wouldn't be the first time. As for my two websites, feel free to peruse them as you wish. I only really pull them out when I need points for an argument, and so they aren't too blame for my lackluster team's performance so far. But I encourage everyone to look at the websites, as well as the articles that are posted, because they're really interesting and I think some (OK, Jack) will like them.
Now, onto the recap of a topsy, turvy week...
The Natural 11, Superhydrophobocity 2
Wow...that's all I can really say. JP, you got your ass kicked this past week. Your team had a decent week, but Riley's had its best week of the season so far. Carl Crawford again carried The Natural in steals, but I don't really see the dearth of steals that Jack comments on. Only three of The Natural's guys has more than ten steals, and I highly doubt Bobby Abreu will keep going at the rate he is now.
Tony McDonald 10, The Poblano Effect 3
I'm also amazed at the outcome of this game. Although, as Jack points out, there were three swing categories that went the Wexford Heights Wannabes (come on, Tmac, just change the name already) way, and so there was a little luck involved in the end result of this matchup. I'm astounded that Team McDonald is actually in fifth place, but it's also a testament to the league right now that the bottom six teams are all within 4 games of each other. The even bigger surprise, in my opinion, is that Tony McDonald does not rank last in moves so far this year (I'd be embarassed if I were you Schneider).
Yung Joseph 10, JJmakesmeHARD(Y) 4
Woe is you, Danny Grimmer! The sky is falling, the sky is falling! Oh wait, Manny's just gone for a while. As another testament to how far our league has come, Grim made what I think was the first Facebook status update about a fantasy team. So congrats on that, but you really don't have to sweat as much as you think, as one player (even Manny) won't hurt you all that much. He only leads you in HR, AVG, and OPS, but you have other guys who can pick up the slack. What will hurt you is if you keep playing the poor excuse of an infielder Alexei Ramirez, who is doing absolutely terrible so far this year. As for Joe, way to back up your smack talk, and of course you are a legitimate fantasy contender every year, but that's because you spend as much time checking your team as Garrett Gmach talks about himself. One more point about Joe's team, I'm going to set the over/under on week Joe gets to 100 moves at Week 9.
Just 2(5) Guyz 8, Religious Sects 6
Luke finally ended up on the other side of the close matchup, with Adam Dunn and Johnny Damon having the best week of his life at the plate. Congrats to Luke on the first win of the season, and I hope I can expect some favorable calls at Opening Day on Saturday. Mike, I know you want more fire from me, but I can't say I really have too much fire this week. Although in your plea for a more Roger Goodell-like commissioner on my side, I'll make it a rule where if there's any swearing that does not relate to Jack's acronym, the offender gets moved down to 10th in waiver priority...how's that Mike?
Consistency 7, Da Commish 7
Schneider, stop trying to be clever with your team names. You're not good at it. Your team is not consistent at all. You dominated the first two weeks but then were close in the past three. So which one is it? See, no consitency, therefore I'm sticking with Impotency for your name. Anyways, Da Commish's hitters did a lot better than they have been the past weeks, but Impotency's just did that much better, thanks to Jason Bay performing ridiculously well this week. I finally did something right this week with my managing decisions, picking up Jason Motte the last day and picking up a hold to win the cateogory.
Transaction of the Week
Just 2(5) Guyz adding Juan Pierre, OF LAD
As has already been covered by Jack, Luke was the quickest to the draw on adding Pierre, and congrats to him on that. Pierre's obviously not going to be the same player Manny is, but he will get on base so it's going to help Luke's steals and runs.
Oly's Rankings
- Yung Joseph
- Impotency
- JJmakesmeHARD(Y)
- Religious Sects
- The Natural
- Superhydrophobocity
- The Poblano Effect
- Tony McDonald
- Just 2(5) Guyz
- Da Commish
Yeah, I know I'm copying Jack, but I do like this section of his column, especially because it gets the most comments. Although I will leave the sexyness for you right now Jack, here are my choices for this week...
I've already showed this to some of you, but I felt it was worthy of being posted. Like I already told ya, Luke, you got some work to do to feature an athlete in your vids. As for Stephen Curry, I think he should probably stick with basketball.
http://www.facebook.com/group.php?gid=78020500641
Seriously, he can't do any worse than Kevin McHale has done.
Somebody call Ned Thompson!!!
Batting stance guy...self-explanatory
And in honor of this Saturday's Fridley Factor Opening Day, here is a whiff clips...
And just because Grimmer mentioned her...
Scott Podsednik's wife
