Welcome all. We're back to give you what you crave, the Week In Review. We saw some shakeup this past week, as teams are starting to settle into their places. Let's take a look at the current standings:
| Division | WeekCatW% | ActW% | PredW% | DeltaW | MatchupW% |
| DS | Joe's Torn Ligament | 0.625 | 0.690 | -2.3 | 0.931 |
| TK | Make It Rain (TFP) | 0.611 | 0.599 | 0.4 | 0.761 |
| TK | Sexual Napalm | 0.597 | 0.583 | 0.5 | 0.733 |
| DS | Maewyn Succat | 0.417 | 0.494 | -2.8 | 0.481 |
| DS | La Furia Roja | 0.514 | 0.481 | 1.2 | 0.441 |
| TK | Dmitri Petrovich | 0.361 | 0.457 | -3.4 | 0.381 |
| TK | Winston Wolfe | 0.611 | 0.454 | 5.7 | 0.372 |
| TK | The Master Baker | 0.389 | 0.434 | -1.6 | 0.306 |
| DS | Enter Sandman | 0.486 | 0.418 | 2.4 | 0.275 |
| DS | Drunk Hot Girl Scout | 0.389 | 0.390 | -0.1 | 0.196 |
DeltaW=Number of difference in Actual Wins vs Predicted Wins. Positive numbers means overrated.
MatchupW%=ComboW% from last week. The percent chance the given team beats a team (wins 7 categories or more) that has a 50% chance of winning every category.
Joe still maintains his top spot in our standings, albeit with authority. Joe had the best hitting week anyone will probably ever see, ever. Joe came in first place in every offensive category this past week. Impressive, indeed. Observe:
| Raw | R | HR | RBI | SB | AVG | OPS | BG |
| Make It Rain (TFP) | 35 | 9 | 39 | 9 | 0.296 | 0.887 | 53 |
| Enter Sandman | 30 | 4 | 22 | 3 | 0.282 | 0.741 | 56 |
| Sexual Napalm | 35 | 7 | 32 | 5 | 0.271 | 0.767 | 59 |
| Maewyn Succat | 24 | 6 | 18 | 7 | 0.277 | 0.801 | 51 |
| La Furia Roja | 29 | 6 | 23 | 6 | 0.289 | 0.821 | 52 |
| The Master Baker | 22 | 5 | 33 | 5 | 0.23 | 0.669 | 55 |
| Drunk Hot Girl Scout | 22 | 2 | 16 | 1 | 0.197 | 0.538 | 54 |
| Winston Wolfe | 30 | 6 | 37 | 6 | 0.308 | 0.916 | 49 |
| Dmitri Petrovich | 34 | 4 | 29 | 2 | 0.271 | 0.796 | 52 |
| Joe's Torn Ligament | 39 | 10 | 42 | 11 | 0.326 | 0.943 | 61 |
Quite a feat. But you may be asking yourself what that far right category is. Any guesses? It is exactly the number of games started for all the batters of each team. So if you have a player in your starting 9 for a night, and he does not start his MLB game, then that is not counted. If a player pinch hits later in the night, it is not counted. It's a crude way of seeing how many total ABs your team got for a week. Joe, as we can see, had almost every spot on his roster filled for every day last week. Basic math says that there are (9 roster spots * 7 days)=63 maximum possible starting games for batters on your team each week (Not including doubleheaders since it usually means usually the day before was a rain out). Joe almost had the maximum possible games, falling 2 short. So if he has the best counting stats, and the most games played, how do the averages compare? Let's look:
| Per Game | R/BG | HR/BG | RBI/BG | SB/BG |
| Make It Rain (TFP) | 0.66 | 0.17 | 0.74 | 0.17 |
| Enter Sandman | 0.54 | 0.07 | 0.39 | 0.05 |
| Sexual Napalm | 0.59 | 0.12 | 0.54 | 0.08 |
| Maewyn Succat | 0.47 | 0.12 | 0.35 | 0.14 |
| La Furia Roja | 0.56 | 0.12 | 0.44 | 0.12 |
| The Master Baker | 0.40 | 0.09 | 0.60 | 0.09 |
| Drunk Hot Girl Scout | 0.41 | 0.04 | 0.30 | 0.02 |
| Winston Wolfe | 0.61 | 0.12 | 0.76 | 0.12 |
| Dmitri Petrovich | 0.65 | 0.08 | 0.56 | 0.04 |
| Joe's Torn Ligament | 0.64 | 0.16 | 0.69 | 0.18 |
As we can see, on a per game basis, Joe put up great numbers. However, he only ranks first in stolen bases if we look at how many games his batters started. Make It Rain (TFP) had almost an equally impressive week on a per game basis. I hope this shows how important it is to make sure you have the right players starting on a given night.
[Note: It's important to understand that if I were to only start my best player and bench everyone else, I would also get very high numbers on a per game basis. The goal of this fantasy game is to get the highest totals, unless the categories are AVG,ERA, etc.]
As for League Strength, the Tom Kocon Division has taken a slight lead. Let's look at their average stats:
| LeagueASS 3.0 | ActW% | PredW% | MatchupW% | Batter | Pitcher |
| Tom Kocon | 0.514 | 0.505 | 0.510 | 0.500 | 0.510 |
| Dan Stuart | 0.486 | 0.495 | 0.490 | 0.500 | 0.490 |
As we can see, it all comes down to the pitching categories where they have the advantage. It'll be interesting to watch this race unfold throughout the year.
Well, with a scary midterm tomorrow and finals week next week, this weeks' WIR must stop here. Soon and very soon I will start throwing out some predictions for the upcoming weeks. I also hope to give "playoff odds"; but that may have to wait until midsummer.
Special shout out to Make It Rain (TFP) for going 11-0-1 against Luke. If only he could have won that Losses category, eh? With that tie on there I feel this is more equivalent to a no hitter than a perfect game. But good work nonetheless.
MEDIA!
Mr. Cafferty wrote to me this past week saying I should have included the FAU vs WKU rain delay in my last week's post. However this information was not received until after my work went to the press. If you haven't seen it yet, you can catch it here.
But this week I'll feature one of my favourite segments, Unnecessary Censorship:
And lastly, in honor of the draft, we have this disturbing gem:
Good night everyone. And hey, how about them Twins?
Welcome back Armchair managers to another Week In Review. My name is Jack and I'll be running you through the stats and news of our fantasy league for this week.
So I think I've got most of the bugs out of my computer. I've realized I should just tell you all at a basic level what my stats do and maybe save a glossary page somewhere for you all to link to. Otherwise, we're all friends, give me a call and I'll do my best to tell you what I'm doing here. You guys have to just rely for now that what I'm doing is beneficial. Let's take a look at some numbers:
| Division | WeekCatW% | ActW% | PredW% | ComboW% |
| TK | Joe's Torn Ligament | 0.542 | 0.602 | 0.784 |
| TK | Sexual Napalm | 0.500 | 0.600 | 0.779 |
| TK | I'll Pick Later | 0.438 | 0.537 | 0.599 |
| DS | Dmitri Petrovich | 0.521 | 0.525 | 0.579 |
| DS | Maewyn Succat | 0.521 | 0.507 | 0.513 |
| DS | Sandbaggers | 0.625 | 0.481 | 0.439 |
| DS | Drunk Hot Girl Scout | 0.458 | 0.458 | 0.365 |
| TK | The Master Baker | 0.458 | 0.458 | 0.370 |
| DS | La Furia Roja | 0.396 | 0.424 | 0.286 |
| TK | Winston Wolfe | 0.542 | 0.407 | 0.242 |
Actual W%-A team's actual winning percentage in the league standings
PredW%-A team's predicted winning percentage, based on where they rank each week in each category
ComboWin%-A team's percent chance of winning more categories than an average team. (That is, a team that has a 50% chance of winning each category) This is a new stat that I introduced last week and will be a better predictor of playoff winners.
[I plan to rename these as different acronyms sometime soon. Again, admissions are welcome. "ASS" just wasn't cutting it.]
And so after two weeks, Joe has found himself back on top. (Especially after a tough armchair football finish) What's surprising (or maybe it isn't) is that Joe is followed by two other Tom Kocon representatives. Yes yes I know it's only the second week, and you should be aware of that, too. So there's not a whole lot to conclude as for which division is tougher. We can simply average out PredW% for each team for each division and see whose is higher. Or we can see how our interleague matchups have been faring. Surprisingly, Joe's Torn Ligament has been the only team not to play an opponent in his own division yet. So he is the lone representative of Tom Kocon for all interleague games thusfar (And has edged out both of them 6-5). So we can keep a running tally this season on interleague W-L.
Again, some future things I'll include in my WIRs are each team's Strength of Schedule, which
So now comes the part of this WIR where I address certain league matters.
1) Divisions
I don't hate the idea of divisions, as long as they are divvied up in some objective manner. Maybe sort them similar to our draft order; First pick in Div1, 2nd and 3rd in Div2, 4th and 5th in Div1, ...
I'm even not opposed to saying that the top 3 winners of each division move on to the playoffs rather than the top 6 overall teams move on. Very MLB-esque.
2) Money
From the looks of it, not many people are too keen on the LeagueSafe idea, since Dave and I are the only ones that have signed up (though I haven't paid yet). I do think it can be a good idea and kudos for Dave for a) Taking the time to do such a thing and b) Trying to resolve and money issues. Maybe it's the small fee ($.30) that people don't like, or that they don't have a debit card (see: The Master Baker). I can do whatever, though.
3) Fines for DL players
I do enjoy a good fine once in awhile. I mean, the East Compton Wombats of old would have had a large tab at the end of the season (that is, before Riley took over), and it was no fun playing a ghost team (and losing). I think the original tariffs Dave proposed were a little steep. But I can be flexible. I'd like to think we're all diehards, but a lot of use may not want to maintain fantasy baseball while relaxing at a cabin, or traveling in another country. Do players all of a sudden go on the DL? Yep. Maybe a 3 strike rule should be in order or something. Or a warning. I don't know. I've been regularly checking my team and I'll bet it happens to me at some point this year, if it hasn't already.
I do like the idea, but personally I'd like to discuss the finer points of the punishment. I also like calling it the TMac Rule. (No offense, bud) And you know me, I'd be all for the fines going toward a buzzed up fantasy football draft. (Though, it's too bad Tom can't participate)
4) Relegation!
I know it hasn't been covered before. But I do love the idea of relegation. I think it would be a good way to include any additional players who wished to join our league. We'd make them sit through a year of battling other hopefuls to come join the fresh air of the top Armchair League. And whoever gets last place from the top league drops down to the second one. I know it's a bit extreme, but maybe we can meet in the middle. Perhaps we can have two divisions as we have now, but they are divided where one is the top league and one is the bottom. It's just extra incentive for a manager to want to do well and win. Though, it would make for a long year if one of us were to get relegated to the bottom league.
Well that's my take for the week. Onward to MEDIA:
Chan Ho Park's excuses for poor pitching:
And I've even got a second one for this week! What a terrible father:
Until next time Armchair Fans.
Welcome back Armchair managers and fans. It's that time of year again; the snow has melted, the Timberwolves are out of playoff contention, and Dick Bremer's voice can be heard in nearly every household throughout the state. Yes indeed, Armchair Baseball is upon us.
And with Armchair Baseball comes Armchair Weeks In Review. I do my best to inform us all on where teams have been, where they are, and perhaps where they'll be going. I've kept a similar format of my advanced standings from our Armchair Football League. Basically, I see where each team ranks up each week against everyone else and give them the proper credit, regardless of if they got a W or not in their actual game. This way, we can see how much scheduling has impacted our regular season wins and losses. I've got another method that's similar but a little more complicated that I'll probably whip out a few weeks into the season. Here's where everyone ranks after week 1:
The numbers for each category is the percent of other teams that they have beaten each week. Since this is week 1, you can do the math easily to see that Maewyn Succat had the most HRs last week and gets a 1.000 rating for beating everyone. If they do it again next week, they'll maintain their 1.000 rating. Likewise, ties count as a half of a win.
ASS 3.0 (which I hope to rename something else later) is not simply the average of each category. Rather, it finds the percent chance that they get an overall win (Winning more than 6 categories = overall win. Also an overall ties are included are are worth half of an overall win.) So for instance, Winston Wolfe has a .123 ASS 3.0 because if he were to play a team, say 10000 times, with .500 in each category and received 1 overall win if he were to win > 6 categories and half a win for tying the number of won categories, this would be his score. It's kind of confusing I know. But it's basically assessing a team's overall winning percentage. This will be very helpful later on when I matchup team vs team to see who is predicted to get an overall win for the following week.
So I'll Pick Later (IPL), as we can see, has a commanding lead. Only 3 categories of his were below the median team's score (SB, SV, K). However, you might be up in arms since they lost overall last week to Joe's Torn Ligament (JTL). Well that's how this system works. When IPL won their categories, they won big. That has an impact when looking at the rest of the league. When they lost to JTL, they lost close. Yes, they lost more categories than won, but JTL is a strong team as well. Also, JTL was one of the few teams that IPL could have played where they would have lost. It's all about matchups, luck, and scheduling folks. I'm here to get rid of all that noise and see how good a team really is.
What else can we take away from this? Maewyn Succat and Joe's Torn Ligament put up a ridiculously strong hitting week by any measure. Maewyn Succat was even more impressive because, after looking at their starting lineup each day, they had a total of 52 games played by their hitters. The average for our league was 53.9. So they're getting a lot of production out of each game for their hitters, rather than making sure every slot in the lineup is filled. Also, I'll Pick Later and the Sandbaggers were the top teams in pitching this past week.
As for our division rivalry, I'll come up with a calculation next week to see where we matchup. But looking at the numbers above, it's quite clear The Stu Crew has the better league thusfar (granted, again, that we've only had one week).
It's a little too early in the year for predictions, but I have a couple of ways of doing it that I'll try to bust out in the future weeks. I've realized that my job is figuring out more about Fantasy Baseball team strategy, rather than looking at individual player strategy. So which types of players should you draft higher: pitchers, hitters, catchers, closers ...? Will David's strategy of not having a closer pay off? Should you draft quality starters or just use the waiver wire to bolster the counting categories? Stay tuned this year and hopefully we'll find out this and more.
Although I haven't been as in tune with viral videos as last fall, I'll supply what funny material I can and leave the rest to Dave. Here's one that my roommate showed me that had me ROFLing:
I'll try to cover the other looming Armchair Topics another time; playoffs, money, etc. I've also got a lot of strategy topics in store that should be interesting (hopefully). I've just been a busy boy here at SJU this semester, which by far has been the busiest, and they profs are not cutting me any slack when I tell them I have an Armchair WIR deadline I need to meet. So apologies if my contributions are a little slow until the summer hits. Man, I can't wait for summer. But at the same time, Man I Love College. HEY!
Howdy fellas! Instead of going to my marketing class today, I decided to do a little preseason blog post to whet your appetites until next week when the real analysis by Mr. Ries will start. I gotta say to start off I'm a little disappointed in the activity within our league. I continue to hope that all members will start contributing to message board posts and the like, but it continues to be the same individuals (myself, Jack, and sometimes Joe). I was really hoping this would be the year where everyone provides input to league matters, and maybe throw in some trash talking too. Alas, I'm probably fighting a losing battle in that regard, so onto more pressing matters for our league.
As far as divisions go, I was looking at more as a new wrinkle to add to the league this year. I assume the divisions were divided up by when you entered the league, because I did not in any way, shape, or form have anything to do with how the divisions ended up. I did look into it now, and it does seem to have unbalanced schedules, and unfortunately, I can't switch that or the whose in which division right now. I do agree that the Dan Stuart is definitely the stronger division. What we can do to possibly alleviate this situation for this year would be to allow 8 teams into the playoffs this year instead of six. This would make it less of a problem if some teams in the Stu division that wouldn't make it in otherwise.
As far as my soccer knowledge goes, I put that down as a slight typo more than anything. Ever since the Confederation's Cup, I have been getting more and more into soccer, and I am looking forward to the World Cup a lot this year, as well as the Champion's League that precedes it. I'm hoping Sam's Army is healthy and ready to go by June 12th because without Guch and Charlie Davies, I don't think we have a shot of doing anything. I assume you like Espana as the favorite, and at this point it's tough not to go with them, but I'm going to root for the underdog Ivory Coast as of right now. Nobody wants to choose Brazil, but I might as well take someone who no one else is going to take. I think of them as the Butler of the World Cup, but not to overwhelm the rest of you with soccer talk, but is there any interest in doing a World Cup fantasy league? Or at least like a bracket pick 'em of some sort?
As usual, Joe continues to throw me under the bus. We discussed the League Safe thing at the draft, and Joe was all in favor of it. As soon as someone who has an important role in the league questions it, of course he flip flops like he's John Kerry around election day. My thinking with League Safe is it's an easy way to collect the money, and no one has to worry about collecting and keeping it, because at the end of the season, i can go in and tell League Safe who to wire the money to so there's also not the hassle of getting it to people either. There are two options to pay for the league that I could have selected, free or standard. Free allows owners to pay by e-check only and there is no convenience fees, and standard allows either e-checks or credit cards, but the 3% convenience fee. The way I saw it was I didn't think people knew how to do e-checks but knew how to pay with credit cards, and I didn't think 30 cents extra for making sure the money is paid and distributed right away would have been a big deal. When I brought up League Safe at the draft, no one said it was a bad idea, and our treasurer Joseph was all in favor of it, even telling me to make the account. If people can't pay like that (in Riley's circumstance), we can certainly have Joe collect that money, but I just felt this was the more convenient option. Let me know what you guys think maybe so you know, we can actually get some input besides me, Joe, and Jack, and occasionally Riley.
I have one more issue also I wanted to address. I mentioned it at the draft and to some of the other members, but I wanted to institute a fine this year as well: Anytime there is a player on a team that is in the starting lineup that is either on the disabled list or in the minors, there would be a $1 fine per player. I was thinking I could check on each team on say, Sunday night, for this circumstance, and so for everytime it happens, you have to pay a buck, with all the money going towards our fantasy football draft this year, as we will all be twenty one, it would be a good fund to use to purchase any adult beverages needed. What do you guys think? I'm particularly interested in what Jack thinks because he wasn't at the draft, and as the pseudo-Deputy Commissioner, I value your opinion. I think we might be able to call it the Tmac Rule for obvious reasons. I will put it as a poll for this week, so please vote.
Well those are all the current issues facing the league that I can think of. I encourage everyone to express their opinion so we can get some real chatter going this year from nearly everyone, and not just the familiar faces. And with that, here are some links for the week! Good luck to all in the first week of what should be an awesome season!
Da Commish's Hot Clicks of the Week
If you haven't seen it yet, here's arguably the best play from Opening Day, even if it is Mark Buerhle
To go along with my increased following of soccer, here's a video tribute to US national team forward Charlie Davies, who was in a serious car accident not too long ago where he broke pretty much every bone in his body. He's looking to come back for the World Cup, which in my opinion would be insane given how recent his injury was.
They don't call them the Cameron Crazies for nothing.
If only Gus Johnson had called the game last night, we could have heard all of these.
And for the Song of the Week, we have Ryan Bingham with The Weary Kind, which is part of the soundtrack to the movie Crazy Heart.